By and large, the United States men's basketball has looked fantastic through its first two games of the 2024 Paris Olympics. Individually, a few guys have struggled to find their footing. None more so than Stephen Curry, who finished 1 for 9 and missed all six of his 3-pointers in the Americans' win over South Sudan.
Tracing back to Team USA's final two exhibition games, Curry is now 13 for 40 over his last four outings. Over that same span, he's missed 22 of his 29 3-pointers. Among nine guys who've received minutes in both games, he's been by far the worst player on the U.S. team.
Call it a small sample, but this entire tournament is a small sample. It's not like Curry has a couple of weeks to get going. After their final group-stage matchup against Puerto Rico on Saturday, the Americans will be in one-and-done territory. A single hiccup and the gold medal is gone.
Of course, it's entirely possible that Curry gets into a rhythm against Puerto Rico in a pressure-free game (the U.S. has already qualified for the quarterfinals, win or lose) and carries that into the knockout rounds. That would certainly make things easier on Steve Kerr, who has taken a cutthroat hack at the playing time of other NBA superstars, namely Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum, both of whom were benched for a whole game.
But it's also possible that this shooting spiral deepens, and if that happens, Kerr could quickly find himself in the unenviable position of having to detach from their shared history and demote Curry from the starting lineup. At the very least, he might have to cut his overall minutes. Hell, depending on how bad this gets, he might have to do both.
Now, if you think this sounds like a ridiculous overreaction to a handful of rough games in which Curry, as he always does, still had an impact on his gravity alone, plenty of smart people would share your opinion. For now, Kerr is one of them. Following the South Sudan game, I went on the Beyond the Arc podcast and laid out a scenario in which Curry continues to struggle (in this particular context), and Kerr ends up having to bench him (in at least some capacity) and was basically laughed off the show.
I get it. This is Stephen Curry we're talking about. The greatest shooter to ever live. A two-time MVP and four-time champion. But Kerr said it himself when explaining his decision to scratch Tatum, a three-time first-team All-NBA performer and champion in his own right: This isn't the NBA.
"Our guys know the key to this whole thing is to put all the NBA stuff in the rearview mirror and just win six games," Kerr said.
That's exactly right. Whatever it takes to win six games. If players the caliber of Tatum and Embiid (also an MVP) can be benched for entire games, cutting Curry's minutes cannot, and should not, be off the table in the event these bricks continue.
Again, Curry could snap out of this funk with one shot and go on a heater the rest of the tournament and render this discussion moot. But there are reasons to question how likely that is to happen, starting with the fact that he simply isn't going to get the same number of shots, literally, that he would typically get to figure this out.
David Thorpe, one of the smartest and most practical basketball analysts that you'll find anywhere, recently pointed this out on the TrueHoop podcast (23-minute mark).
"He just doesn't get the ball very much [with Team USA] compared to what he's used to [in the NBA]," Thorpe said of Curry. "Guys in the NBA who are integral parts of the offense have a much easier time finding their rhythm after bad starts than the guys who are lucky to get six shots a game."
Thorpe used former Sacramento King and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Kevin Martin, one of the many players he has worked with over the course of his coaching career, as an example, citing the number of times Martin started a game "0 for 7" and "still end[ed] up with 25 [points]."
"If you're getting 12 minutes, eight minutes a half, whatever, good luck with that," Thorpe said. "It's not gonna happen."
Indeed, this is the crux of my Curry concern. In the NBA, the entire offense is directed at getting him shots. When he's not popping open off ball, or if he's cold and needs to stoke the fire, Kerr just puts the ball in his hands (however reluctantly) and lets him run pick and roll. Eventually, he almost always works himself into a rhythm. He's too great a shooter and scorer not to.
But with this team, those opportunities to get going are much fewer and farther between. The entire FIBA game is 40 minutes, and right now, Curry is playing about half of that in around five-minute stints. He may only get one or two shots per shift, which, when you're cold, ratchets up the pressure considerably to take advantage of those limited opportunities.
Pressure matters. Anyone who falls for the notion that athletes of this caliber are immune to questioning themselves, that players like Curry live in a perpetual state of unwavering confidence, is flat out wrong. Years ago, I remember talking to Mark Price, also one of the greatest shooters to ever live, and I'll never forget him telling me that everyone struggles with confidence when they're not making shots.
That's not to suggest Curry questions himself on a macro level. In the big picture, of course, he knows how great a shooter he is. Everyone does. We all know that, given the benefit of time, he is going to make shots at a rate no other basketball player in the world can match. But in a small sample, in those micro moments from when the ball hits his hand to when it's released, Curry, who is trying to live up to the hype of his own reputation inside the baptism by fire that is anyone's first Olympic experience, is pressing right now. There is no question about that.
Add to that the fact that shooting is really the only thing Curry does for this team, and the urgency to start making shots increases even more. Again, he's not running the offense, and he's been the worst defender on the roster. However much you think his mere presence on the court is worth, it can only justify so many missed shots before defenses potentially stop overreacting to his movement (he has only created a couple of outright layups on account of multiple defenders jumping out on him) and alternatives must be considered.
"Steph may get to the point where he's unplayable," Thorpe said. "Because if he's not getting the ball very much, and he's not effective offensively, now we get to [Curry's defensive concerns]. I'm telling you, there's a scenario in this tournament where Curry gets played off the court.
"I'm going to err on the side of he'll probably end up being fine," Thorpe concluded. "But like I said, there's a universe right there in front of us that he isn't fine. He's just not making shots, and [opposing] teams have the discipline to not [send two defenders] for Curry and then give up a layup or dunk for someone else, and then Kerr is gonna have to not play him. But he's such a nuclear presence you have to at least let him try to shoot his way out of it if he can, and if he can't, by the time he gets to the semifinals, he may play less."
My thoughts exactly. Curry is going to get every opportunity to get going, and deservedly so. You look at a potential opponent like France -- against which shooting could take on a heightened importance given the paint protection of Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert -- and the Americans could well end up needing at least one big Curry game to get this thing done.
But how long can Kerr keep waiting for that breakout to happen? If Kerr is going to be true to his word that NBA status doesn't matter in this context and we're really only going on who's the absolute best player for every minute of every matchup in every single game, well, facts are facts. Curry has been the worst player on the team over the last four games, and there are only four games, at most, left in this tournament. Kerr doesn't want to yank Curry. You can bet on that. But if Curry doesn't start playing better, he may not have any choice.
