Lauri Markkanen has been the most prominent player on the NBA's trade market this offseason, and the Golden State Warriors have been in hot pursuit. A deal makes sense on both sides. The Warriors, staring at the end of Stephen Curry's prime, would like to contend for championships with him while they still can. The Jazz have been a lottery team over the past two seasons and are badly in need of direction. Markkanen is good enough to get them a haul of assets that might one day be part of a winner, but not so good that he could be expected to lead them to contention himself.
The Jazz and Warriors have gone back and forth over the past few weeks and months, but there is an end in sight. On Aug. 6, Markkanen becomes eligible to renegotiate and extend his contract. This would allow the Jazz to use the bulk of their cap space to raise Markkanen's 2024-25 salary from $18 million up to his max while then locking him up long-term on a deal that pays him at a rate commensurate with his production.
Here's the catch: If Markkanen does renegotiate and extend, he becomes ineligible for a trade for the next six months. Six months from Aug. 6, 2024, is Feb. 6, 2025. That date happens to be the 2025 trade deadline.
This breaks the Markkanen timeline into three distinct phases. Right now, we are in the first phase, the period in which Markkanen is not eligible to renegotiate and extend. It makes sense for the Jazz to determine whether or not they want to trade him now, before they face the pressure that would come from the Markkanen camp on a new deal. The Jazz are the only team with the cap space to give him a raise this season, so if his primary goal is maximizing earnings, it behooves him to remain in Utah. Other teams could only extend him at a 40% raise on his current salary, which is far below his true worth. He would have to wait a year and re-sign with his new team as a free agent to get fair value.
The second phase comes on Aug. 6, specifically. If Markkanen is open to a trade but wants to get paid now, he would re-sign on this date to make him eligible for an in-season move. The Jazz might also use this as a negotiating point, saying to Markkanen that they are willing to pay him his max, but only if he agrees to trade eligibility during the season. Such a move would kill talks for now, but allow the Jazz to re-evaluate their position in February.
Finally, the third phase starts on Aug. 7. If Markkanen extends at that point, he's off of the table from a trade standpoint until the 2025 offseason. If Markkanen does not want to be traded, he will extend on Aug. 7 or later. The widespread expectation from multiple reporters has been that Markkanen will take this approach. He reportedly likes playing in Utah and would prefer to remain there for the foreseeable future.
If the Jazz are set on trading Markkanen now, it probably has to happen before Aug. 6. While an in-season trade is feasible if he signs on Aug. 6, his cap number would be far higher. Matching money on an $18 million player is far easier than doing so on a max-salary player, especially in an era in which half of the league is hard-capped by one of the aprons. The Warriors, for instance, have easy paths to matching on Markkanen at his current number, but after letting Chris Paul and Klay Thompson go, they lack the sort of big salaries they'd probably need to get Markkanen later without seriously hurting their roster.
If the Jazz are willing to be patient, though, re-signing Markkanen gives them another year to re-evaluate where they stand before making up their minds. Perhaps they believe that Markkanen, their current young players and their deep stash of future draft picks will be enough to build a long-term winner, and they want to see another year of Markkanen's fit with those players before deciding whether or not a trade is necessary.
Only Danny Ainge knows the team's true intent. We'll have a far better idea of his plans in the very near future.
