The NBA season is now officially a month old, which means we can really start to form opinions on teams and players around the league. We're still in "small sample size" territory, but trends are starting to set in. With the rookie class, it's still pretty difficult to get a read on many of these guys in part because several of the names taken at the top of the draft have not been performing in the way many expected them to.
We all knew it was going to be a weird rookie class without a surefire No. 1 pick with franchise-altering capabilities, but we might be in store for a season where the person who wins Rookie of the Year won't even average 15 points a game. For those keeping track at home, the last Rookie of the Year winner to average fewer than 15 points a night was Malcolm Brogdon in 2017 when he averaged 10.2 points a night (Joel Embiid averaged 20.2 points per game that season but only played 31 games).
That doesn't necessarily mean this rookie class is bad, which has been the descriptor so often attached to it, but rather it's filled with players who are going to take more time to develop. We've seen positive flashes from No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, and No. 2 pick Alex Sarr's has shown promise on defense even when his offense is lagging far behind. Reed Sheppard -- the No. 3 pick in the draft -- has yet to break through in a big way in Houston's rotation, but that could change as the season progresses.
If anything, what we've seen is that while the top picks from this draft have struggled or got minimal playing time, those taken right outside the lottery and later in the first round are really thriving. Jared McCain of the 76ers and Dalton Knecht of the Lakers have had some of the biggest performances of the season, while Suns' Ryan Dunn and Grizzlies' Jaylen Wells have been defensive stalwarts on contenders.
This rookie class may not have any one person drawing all the attention, but there's been plenty of names worth watching. And with the season now a month expired, it makes sense to roll out the first edition of Rookie Rankings. We'll be rolling these out on a month-to-month basis, and it will serve as a Rookie of the Year standings.
Sitting outside the Top 5
10. Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards (9.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.1 BPG 35.1 FG%, 20.3 3P%): It was pretty evident that the Wizards were getting a project when they drafted Sarr. That showed in Summer League when Sarr struggled significantly on offense, and it's still proving true through the regular season. Sarr's shooting just 35.1% from the floor, a mind-boggling number for a 7-footer. He's taking more 3s than shots within four feet of the rim, another anomaly for someone his size. It's clear that the Wizards want him spreading the floor and taking those 3s, but he hasn't been effective in that so far.
The silver lining is that the defense is solid. He's second amongst rookies with 27 blocks, and fourth in the league. He looks comfortable on that end of the floor, but his offensive game is going to take some time to get where the Wizards need it to be.
9. Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans (6.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 53.3 FG%): The rookie leader in total rebounds, Missi is a super-athletic big who is a lob threat whenever he's on the floor. He's aggressive in crashing the offensive glass, and pretty much never has to leave the dunker's spot. He'll be more valuable when New Orleans is fully healthy, but even now he's been impactful on both ends of the floor.
8. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks (12 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1 SPG, 38.6 FG%, 25.0 3P%): Since the 33-point outing on supremely efficient shooting numbers in a win against the Knicks, Risacher has been trending in the right direction. The efficiency is up, though he's still shooting just 25% from 3-point range. His scoring has been all over the place as he struggles with consistency, but while the shots aren't falling Risacher looks the part of someone who can be an impactful player down the line. His defense is as advertised, proving that even if his shot isn't falling, Risacher can impact the game in other ways.
7. Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers (5.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 55.2 FG%): The biggest takeaway from watching Clingan, who has been in the starting lineup over the last three games for the injured Deandre Ayton, is that the Trail Blazers need to make a move that will free up more consistent minutes for the rookie big man. Once Ayton is back, Chauncey Billups will likely insert him back in the starting lineup, but should he? Clingan is leading all rookies with 30 total blocks, and he does it without fouling a ton, too. Clingan is part of Portland's future, and it shouldn't take for Ayton -- and Robert Williams III -- to get injured for him to get more minutes.
6. Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns (6.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 42.2 FG%, 32.2 3P%): Dunn really turned heads at the start of the season when he went 11 for 24 from 3-point range in his first five games. That's 44% from deep for those struggling to do the math. That alone would be crazy for any rookie, but when you consider Dunn was a career 23.5% shooter from deep in two seasons at Virginia, that bump in efficiency matters a ton. Through the first eight games, Dunn was averaging 39.4% from deep, but since missing one game with an ankle sprain, the come down has been sobering.
Over the last six games, Dunn is shooting just 23.1% from deep on 4.3 attempts per game. He's struggled to find a balance, but the positive is that he's still going to get major minutes because of his defense. Dunn can use his length to stay in front of speedier guards, and use his strength to challenge bigger wings. He's relentless in fighting around screens, and is always in the mix to make the right play on defense, which usually ends up in a deflection, turnover or a steal.
5. Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers
Knecht's recent shooting stretch had me bump him pretty high up the rankings last minute. Sure, he's only been on this tear for the last four games, where he's averaging a ridiculous 24.3 points on 67.7% from 3-point range, but that's the kind of bump that deserves a drastic climb up the rookie standings.
Knecht is coming off a night where he tied the rookie record for most 3s in a single game with nine. He racked up a career-high 37 points in L.A.'s trouncing of the Jazz. Knecht is a bonafide 3-point threat, and he's also shown he can score at all three levels, as well.
He's been in the starting lineup for the last three games due to Rui Hachimura's injury, and he's performed so well that it begs the question whether JJ Redick should keep him with the starting five. It's unfortunate for Hachimura, but with the way Knecht is shooting the ball, you have to at least seriously consider it. Knecht's 3-point shooting is something the Lakers have been missing for pretty much the entirety of the LeBron James-Anthony Davis era in L.A., and that's including the 2020 championship year. Not only is he the exact type of gunning shooter the Lakers have been missing, but they got him in the middle of the first round in the draft.
The one drawback is the defense. Knecht looks like he's playing the most ill-timed game of "the floor is lava," every time he gets put out on an island. Any crossover and he's jumping around on his feet and getting cooked. That's the bad with the good that the Lakers will have to take with him right now, and hope he can improve to at least not be a total liability.
The positive is that Knecht is at least engaged on defense and looks like he wants to improve in that area. That's half the battle. Until he can get the mechanics down on that end of the floor, the Lakers will have to do some heavy lifting in covering for his poor defense by ensuring there's another wing out there who can take on the tougher backcourt assignment.
4. Carlton Carrington, Washington Wizards
The Wizards have been downright awful, but they've appeared to have made a smart decision when they did the draft night trade that brought them "Bub" Carrington. He leads all rookies with five assists a night, and even better he doesn't turn the ball over a ton, which is rare for a rookie point guard. But that's a testament to how smart Carrington has been. He makes the right reads, knows when to pass or score and he's already proving to be a pretty dangerous scorer in the mid range.
In the last five games, Carrington is averaging 10.5 points on 45.3% from the field and 44.8% from deep, to go along with 4.7 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals. the 3-point shooting is impressive as of late, especially since he wasn't much of a threat from beyond the arc in his lone season at Pittsburgh. The one caveat here is that Carrington doesn't get to rim much at all, something that will need to change if he's going to be a more well-rounded offensive threat.
Carrington's usage is also pretty low at 15.2% for a lead guard, but when you're sharing the floor with Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma, that's not incredibly surprising. If the Wizards end up finding trades for one or both of those guys by February, it would be interesting to see how much more Carrington can do on offense when he's the only guy running the show.
3. Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies
You must be doing pretty well in your rookie season if you're regularly defending the opposing team's best perimeter players. Wells, taken in the second round at 39th overall in June's NBA Draft has been tasked with guarding LeBron James, Damian Lillard and Tyrese Maxey, just to name a few, and he's not getting totally cooked in the process. Wells has such a great feel for where he needs to be on defense, moves his feet well so he's not getting blown by and takes great angles around screens so he's not leaving easy opportunities for opponents.
Wells has been pushed into Memphis' starting lineup over the last nine games due to injuries, and when he's on the floor the Grizzlies are allowing 9.7 fewer points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 89th percentile.
The defense has been solid, and so too has Wells' 3-point shooting as he's hitting at a 36.8% from deep. In a win against the Lakers, Wells put up 20 points on an efficient 7 of 10 from the field, including 5 of 7 from deep.
Wells has primarily done his damage in catch-and-shoot situations, but he's also shown flashes of being able to score off the bounce, too. He won't be asked to do that very often with all the ball handlers the Grizzlies employ, but it's a nice tool for Memphis to exploit when needed.
2. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
There were valid questions about how Edey would fare at the pro level, primarily because the game has shifted away from the traditional centers as stretch bigs and super athletic rim runners have been on trend. But Edey's start to the season is the perfect example of why the team you're drafted to matters significantly in your development.
The stuff Edey did well at the collegiate level: post-ups, lobs, having great touch on hook shots in the paint, have only been amplified on this Memphis team. He's already got instant chemistry with Ja Morant, who practically salivates any time he sees Edey under the rim as a "break glass in case of emergency" option when the defense collapses on him while attacking the rim.
Edey's 3.1 offensive rebounds per game are a big reason why the Grizzlies are generating 17.1 second-chance points a night, which ranks fourth in the league. And with Steven Adams gone, having someone who would be aggressive on the offensive glass was a necessity for a team that won 51 games two years ago on the strength of the second-chance opportunities Adams -- and Jonas Valanciunas before him -- provided.
It may not be flashy, but Edey's making a positive impact on a winning team while averaging over 20 minutes a night. What has been eyebrow-raising, though is the fact that Edey is 6 of 10 on 3s this season. In four years at Purdue the big man attempted TWO total 3s. Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins already said Edey's got the green light to shoot it from downtown, and he's letting it fly. Is 60% sustainable? Probably not, but if he's at least a passable shooter from beyond the arc it certainly opens up even more of what the Grizzlies can do on offense.
The defense is a big reason why Edey is so high here. His size in the paint is already becoming a deterrent for opposing teams, and you can see the development in real time as the season goes on. In the last fives games he's totaled seven blocks, a big bump from the one block he had in the first five games of the season. His timing on blocks is getting better, though he's struggling to stay out of foul trouble, having already fouled out twice this season. That's to be expected from a rookie big man learning how to defend at this level, and it's something Jaren Jackson Jr., a former Defensive Player of the Year who also struggled with staying out of foul trouble early in his career, could help the rookie with.
That will be the next hurdle for him to clear, but otherwise, Edey's been incredibly impactful on both sides of the ball for the Grizzlies.
1. Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers
An injury to Tyrese Maxey opened up a door for the No. 16 pick in June's draft, and he's running straight through it at full speed. Over the last five games, McCain is averaging 26.6 points on 50.5% from the field and 44% from deep. He's putting up such huge numbers with no efficiency drop off over that stretch, and while the Sixers have mustered just a 1-4 record during that span because of Joel Embiid, Paul George and Maxey all missing time, he's been the bright spot recently in what's been an otherwise massively disappointing start to the season.
This kid is catching the ball beyond the arc and letting it fly with zero hesitation, and he's making them at a high clip, too.
But it's not just that he's a threat from 3-point range, McCain can score off the bounce, and he's so good at relocating to always put himself in a position to get off a good look.
The speed he has when he's moving without the ball to get open makes him more troublesome to guard, and then the shiftiness with the ball in his hands makes up for the lack of height. We're only 13 games into the season and teams are already trapping and doubling McCain to get the ball out of his hands.
The offense has been awesome, and it's only going to get better when the Sixers are at full strength. He'll be the spark plug off the bench, and has already shown that he can step into the starting lineup when needed. McCain gives the Sixers juice, especially at a time when they're struggling to field a healthy lineup. His shooting provides floor spacing, and his handle gives Philadelphia another player who can bring the ball up the floor. Just imagine him out there with Embiid, Maxey and George, that's such a dangerous combination for opposing teams to have to deal with.
The biggest drawback here is that because McCain's 6-foot-3, he's getting attacked relentlessly on defense. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland practically took turns hunting him on defense in Cleveland's 114-106 win last week.The effort is there, but right now he's getting thrown into a bunch of actions and more often than not getting burned. The positive is that McCain's built similarly to Jalen Brunson, where he's got some strength to not get totally bullied on mismatches in the paint, but the point of attack defense out on the perimeter is pretty bad. Rookies are rarely impactful on defense, especially undersized guards, so McCain will have to find ways to be effective on that end.
The defense may not be there, but on offense, McCain's been the best rookie in this class so far.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Odds via Caesars as of Nov. 20. Fans can take action on the NBA all season long with the latest Caesars promo code.
- Jarred McCain: +150
- Dalton Knecht: +250
- Zaccharie Risacher: +500
- Carlton Carrington: +800
- Zach Edey: +1200
