By most mathematical measures, the Philadelphia 76ers are more or less cooked. They are 2-11. They are tied with the Washington Wizards for the NBA's worst record. Joel Embiid is clearly not back to full strength yet. It's not clear when Tyrese Maxey will return from his own injury. After Monday's 106-89 loss to the Miami Heat, head coach Nick Nurse was late to his press conference because of what he described as a "little" team meeting, which rarely come about for positive reasons.
History tells us this season is almost certainly over. Only six teams have ever recovered from a 2-10 start to reach .500: the 2022-23 Los Angeles Lakers, two different Chicago Bulls teams (1976-77 and 2004-05), two different New Jersey Nets teams (1981-82 and 2004-05) and one Seattle Supersonics team (1977-78). Of those teams, only the Lakers and Sonics won a playoff series.
Of course, it should also be noted that those Sonics made it all of the way to Game 7 of the 1978 NBA Finals. The Lakers made it to the Western Conference Finals. Yes, these are outliers, but outliers exist, and despite their 2-11 start, the 76ers, at least on paper, look primed to be our next slow start outlier. Why? Here are three reasons not to panic about Philadelphia's miserable start.
1. They're in the Eastern Conference
Consider the following statement: "The Boston Celtics are out of the running for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference." It's a tad ridiculous, isn't it? They trail the No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers by only 3.5 games in the standings. Well, that's how far the 76ers are out of the No. 6 seed in the East right now. At 2-11, they trail the No. 6 seed Detroit Pistons by five wins and two losses, or 3.5 games in total. We're not even talking about a Play-In spot at this point. We're talking about an outright playoff spot.
Philadelphia's schedule, at least thus far, has been fairly difficult. They've played seven opponents currently above .500, tied for the third-most in the East. They've played one more road game than games at home. They've already encountered several of the thinner, older teams that are likelier to be injured later in the season like the Lakers, Knicks and Suns. Other than a home loss to the surprisingly frisky Pistons and a defeat at the hands of the Paolo Banchero-less Magic, most of their defeats have been relatively defensible.
The reality of playing in the Eastern Conference is that the pathway to the postseason is almost always pretty straightforward. Let's say Philadelphia plays .500 basketball the rest of the way. That would get them to 36 wins, the same amount last year's No. 10 seed in the East, the Atlanta Hawks. If they manage a 40-29 record the rest of the way, which translates to an unimpressive 47.5-win pace over a full season, they'll finish above .500 at 42-40. That virtually guarantees them a playoff spot, as only four Eastern Conference teams have gone above .500 and missed the playoffs this century, and two of them were Play-In teams in the same season (2021-22).
This is just life in the NBA's junior varsity conference. A 2-11 start might be a death sentence out West. In the East, there's more than enough margin for error to climb back into the thick of things.
2. Their stars have not been in position to succeed yet
Maxey and Embiid have not played in a game together yet. Maxey and Paul George have played together twice. George and Embiid have played together three times. Yes, that is a long way of saying "they haven't been healthy," but think about how this Philadelphia roster was constructed.
Embiid, George and Maxey are all earning max salaries. There is not another player on the roster within the 190 highest-paid players in the NBA. Caleb Martin, making slightly more than the cap room mid-level exception, comes in at No. 191. No team is explicitly designed to win with missing stars, but remember, we're in the second apron era. It's harder than ever to cultivate depth. Philadelphia's path to winning always revolved around having three healthy stars because there was never going to be too much behind them. They've played more than half of their games with one or fewer stars on the court. This was, to an extent, inevitable.
You could argue that their stars haven't been good enough when they've been on the floor, but that's been relatively predictable in context. Embiid always starts slow. He shot below 50% from the floor in October and November of last season. In December and January he was back up to 56% from the field and 41.4% on 3s. A year before that, Philadelphia started 12-12 and ended 42-16, winning Embiid his first MVP award. Maxey's overall efficiency has plummeted, but that has mostly come from behind the arc. He's actually shooting one percentage point better on 2-pointers (51.1% vs. 50.1%) than he did a year ago. He's just been cold on open 3-pointers, making only 20% of those attempts compared to 36.9% last season. George is in a similar boat. He's at 15-of-52 from deep this season, but he's a career 38.4% shooter. He's going to progress back to the mean.
These are issues that are likely to correct as the season progresses. Embiid will get in shape. His presence will open the paint up more for Maxey, who has struggled at the rim while playing in weak lineups. Maxey's rim gravity will create more triples for George. Having all three healthy will mean fewer minutes with one or none of them on the floor at all. This team was built for these three players to amplify one another. That just hasn't been possible thus far.
3. They've hit home runs with their supporting cast
The supporting cast has, by and large, been bad. Martin isn't hitting 3-pointers at the rate they'd hoped. Kyle Lowry is hitting 3-pointers but not doing nearly enough else. Kelly Oubre and Eric Gordon have struggled across the board. Obviously, this isn't what Philadelphia was hoping for, but it supports the notion that you generally get what you pay for in the NBA. Most of Philadelphia's resources were devoted to uniting its three stars. There wasn't much left for everyone else.
From that perspective, their two major wins on the role player front are that much more meaningful. Jared McCain has been an absolute revelation as the No. 16 overall pick in June's NBA Draft. He's not going to keep averaging 26.6 points per game as he has across his last five outings, but the 76ers have seemingly landed on a viable three-level scorer outside of the lottery for the second time in four drafts. While McCain isn't quite as impactful with the ball in his hands as Maxey is, the importance of landing this type of scorer without allocating major resources to doing so cannot be understated. How on Earth are you supposed to stop Embiid, Maxey and George when there's a fourth 76ers player ready to punish you for helping off of him or giving him mismatches? Their offense, at full strength, is going to be extremely difficult to guard.
Guerschon Yabusele, provided he can keep making roughly a league-average percentage of his 3-pointers, slots just as easily into multiple important roles. The 76ers allocated their few remaining post-George resources to wings. They signed four free agents for real money after George, three of whom figured to be rotation mainstays: Martin, Oubre and Andre Drummond. That's two small forwards to go along with the expensive small forward they just added and a center to go along with the star center they already had.
There wasn't really a power forward anywhere on the roster. Yabusele is bulkier than George, Martin and Oubre, but a viable shooter. He can guard players they can't without compromising the offense. In theory, that also opens the door for small-ball lineups when Embiid rests, a weapon the 76ers really haven't had with their MVP on the team. Philadelphia nabbed Yabusele for the minimum. Their net rating is 7.3 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor.
Two surprisingly effective role players aren't enough to support such a top-heavy roster, but the 76ers have the resources to fill in gaps as the season progresses. Remember, they signed George outright. They didn't have to sacrifice assets to trade for him or clear cap space for him. All of the draft capital remaining in their cupboard, plus the picks they got for James Harden, are still in play here.
The 76ers also wisely exploited a few holes in the CBA to retain KJ Martin at a salary not commensurate with his value. He is making roughly $8 million this season, a very tradable figure. Combine Martin and Oubre with their draft picks and the 76ers suddenly have the ammo to trade for a high-value role player earning around $16 million. Throw in Drummond's $5 million and that figure goes up, or could be more easily spread across multiple additions. The 76ers have the chips to add to this team if they want to.
Considering where they started, any scenario in which they had more than a handful of trustworthy role players was always going to be unlikely, but the glass half full outlook here is that they found two good ones with resources they shouldn't have expected them to. That leaves their more expensive role players available for trade. Say Martin starts making his 3s, someone else on the bench starts to pop and Daryl Morey adds an impactful role player in February. That's not exactly a deep team, but it's enough depth to support three superstars if they're as healthy and productive as the 76ers hope. And if they're not? Well, then this team wasn't going to go anywhere anyway.
