Team USA's path through the 2024 Paris Olympics has largely been easy thus far. Yes, it had to play Serbia in the opener, but its last three games have come against opponents ranked No. 12 (Brazil), No. 16 (Puerto Rico) and No. 33 (South Sudan) in the world, according to FIBA. The star-studded American roster was never going to lose to any of those teams.
But Serbia? Yes, Team USA has beaten Serbia twice in the past month, but this is an opponent that actually could credibly win a single game against the best team in the field. Serbia defeated Team USA at the 2019 World Cup. It took home silver in the 2023 World Cup. It has the best player in the field (and the world) in Nikola Jokic, and unlike the last two times these teams have met, this is a single-elimination matchup. The loser is going home without the gold medal. For the first time, this is a game Team USA genuinely needs to take seriously.
So what does that mean heading into Team USA's semifinal matchup? Here are our best bets for the battle with Serbia.
Team USA vs. Serbia
Team USA won their group stage game against Serbia by 26 points... but it won the nine minutes or so that Nikola Jokic spent on the bench by exactly 26 points. When Jokic was on the floor, for roughly 75% of the game, these two teams were even. That was despite the fact that Serbia shot 9-of-37 from 3-point range (24.3%) while Team USA shot 18-of-32 (56.3%). Team USA is probably going to win this game. It's just really hard to imagine Team USA blowing Serbia out three times, if you include their exhibition bout. Serbia can beat Team USA on a good day. On an average one, these teams should be competitive. The Pick: Serbia +16.5
I keep picking unders and the overs keep hitting. I'm finally flipping to the over largely because it behooves Team USA to play this game with pace. Jokic doesn't have many weaknesses, but his biggest is holding up in pick-and-roll against speed. If Team USA plays a slower, plodding style with anyone pounding the rock too much, that plays right into his hands. The idea is going to be to play fast, get Serbia in rotation and take advantage of the fact that Jokic is neither an elite rim protector nor switch defender. If that compels Serbia to play fast, which Jokic can do quite well with his full-court passing, then all the better. The Pick: Over 187.5
Sadly, the books caught up after setting Jokic's assist line at a preposterously low 4.5 in the group stage game against Team USA. At 7.5, the value is gone. But his point total at 20.5 seems more reasonable. If nothing else, I don't expect Jokic to sit nearly as much as he did in the first game. This is the medal round. Team USA has no obvious way of defending him one-on-one. If ever there were a time for Serbia to just say, "We have the best player and we're going to ride him for 40 minutes," it would be now. On that front, I like all of his overs. But given the stakes of this game and the matchup advantages he has, the thought of him posting a gaudy point total stands out. The Pick: Jokic Over 20.5 Points
