The 2024-25 season is only three months away and it's never too early to start thinking about win totals. ESPN BET has posted win totals for all 30 NBA teams ahead of the upcoming season.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that the reigning champion Boston Celtics have the highest win total for next season at 58.5. The Celtics led the league with 64 wins last season, the first time they surpassed 58.5 wins since 2009. They are one of eight teams with a win total of more than 50 games.
In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the highest number at 55.5 wins.
The team with the lowest win total heading into the season is the Brooklyn Nets, who are in the midst of a rebuild after trading away Mikal Bridges in the offseason. The same narrative applies for the other rebuilding teams like the Portland Trail Blazers (21.5) and Washington Wizards (22.5). All these teams will be vying for the honor to draft highly touted prospect Cooper Flagg No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. Although I am cautiously optimistic about one of these teams, which I'll elaborate on shortly.
Here are six bets to consider before the start of the season:
Cleveland Cavaliers over 47.5 wins
Forty-eight wins seems way too low for the Cavaliers. Cleveland dealt with numerous injuries last season as Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen only played 28 games together, yet the team still won 48 games. New head coach Kenny Atkinson inherits a Cavaliers team that has won 99 regular-season games over the past two seasons and his recent experience as a head coach with the Nets and assistant coach with the Golden State Warriors should help him continue to make this team better. The continuity between Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen should position Cleveland to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
Phoenix Suns over 46.5 wins
The Suns struggled while dealing with injuries last season in the first full year of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal playing together, but they still won 49 games despite getting swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Phoenix returns all five starters this season and had a busy offseason bringing in proven role players like Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee. Mike Budenholzer, who is one of the best regular-season head coaches in league history, will replace Frank Vogel. He had a 271-120 record in five seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks and a 213-197 record in his previous years with the Atlanta Hawks. This Suns team has a lot of potential.
Detroit Pistons over 24.5 wins
Detroit hit rock bottom last season, losing the most consecutive games in league history and finishing with the league's worst record, leading to head coach Monty Williams' termination. The only way to go is up and Detroit has a promising young core in Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey that should excite bettors. The Pistons also added Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Paul Reed, who all should be able to contribute immediately. New head coach J.B. Bickerstaff is a great fit for Detroit and should help them improve on the defensive end. Last season, the Cavaliers' defense ranked seventh in defensive rating (112.1) during the regular season under Bickerstaff. After replacing John Beilein in Cleveland back in 2020, Bickerstaff had a 170-159 record in five seasons. I like the Pistons' chances of surpassing this total.
Los Angeles Lakers under 44.5 wins
While this total might seem reasonable considering the Lakers won 47 games last season, this line is too high. The Lakers had the best-case scenario last season with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both healthy. James consistently played at a high level, appearing 71 games, while Davis played in 76 games. The question for this year is whether the Lakers can count on both James and Davis to stay healthy in 2024-25.
Los Angeles ranked 15th in offensive rating, 17th in defensive rating and made the playoffs after surviving the play-in tournament the past two seasons. But they didn't add much to their roster besides drafting Dalton Knecht and Bronny James. If James and Davis miss games, the Lakers could struggle to win consistently, especially in a competitive Western Conference. Added, the team also has a new head coach in J.J. Reddick, who might experience some growing pains in his first season as bench boss in Los Angeles.
LA Clippers under 40.5 games
The Clippers won 51 games last season but replicating that success will be challenging. Kawhi Leonard was excellent, playing over 60 games for the first time since 2016-17. However, things might not play out well this season considering how the previous one ended with Leonard missing the final eight games. His surgically repaired right knee continues to be an issue, even though the Clippers insist Leonard will be ready when training camp opens. Losing Paul George to the Philadelphia 76ers also hurt this team. The Clippers' offseason additions were very underwhelming so it's difficult to see them being a competitive team in the Western Conference if Leonard is not on the court.
Milwaukee Bucks under 50.5 wins
There is reason for optimism in the second season of the Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton trio following a full offseason in Doc Rivers' system. However, the Bucks will have to fix their defense, that was atrocious last season, ranking 19th in the NBA.
Milwaukee fell short of expectations, winning only 49 games and while injuries played a part, their core is getting older. Antetokounmpo is entering his age-30 season, Lillard is 34, Middleton is 32 and Brook Lopez is 36. All have seen a decline in their statistical production and the Bucks didn't make a splash in free agency, adding AJ Johnson and Tyler Smith in the 2024 NBA draft. Both rookies are still raw, so their chances of contributing right away are slim.
The Eastern Conference will also be more competitive, especially at the top with the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks all having better odds to win the Eastern Conference. Fifty-two wins feel more like the Bucks' ceiling and not their floor.
