A pivotal Game 4 showdown between the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics and the No. 8 seed Miami Heat takes place on Monday evening. After these teams split the first two games, the Celtics went on the road and took care of business. In Game 3, Boston blew out the Heat 104-84. Miami hopes to bounce back and even the series at home with a win on Monday. Terry Rozier (neck), Jimmy Butler (knee), and Josh Richardson (shoulder) are all out for the Heat.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Celtics are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 203.5. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and Game 4 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Boston -10.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 203.5 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Boston -526, Miami +391
- BOS: The Celtics are 15-5 in their last 20 games on the road
- MIA: The Heat are 5-10 ATS in their past 15 games at home
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
The Celtics are looking for a repeat of what happened in Game 3. They played stingy defense while having multiple players step up on the offensive end. Boston held the Heat to 41% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from 3-point range. The Celtics also outrebounded the Heat 43-36 and forced 12 turnovers but only committed six.
Forward Jayson Tatum continues to be a driving force for this team. Tatum's offensive game is so tough to stop due to his ability to get a score from all three levels. The former Duke standout does damage on the glass as well. In this series, he leads the team in scoring (24.3), rebounds (9.7), and assists (6.3) per game. Tatum finished with 22 points, 11 boards and six assists in the Game 3 victory. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat go as center Bam Adebayo goes. Adebayo brings plenty of energy on both ends of the floor. The 26-year-old is able to dominate from the mid-range area to the paint consistently. Thus far in the first round, Adebayo has logged 21.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. In Miami's Game 2 victory, he racked up 21 points and 10 rebounds.
Guard Tyler Herro gives the squad an athletic scorer on the perimeter. Herro owns a sweet jumper to stretch out defenses but is fearless in attacking the lane. The 24-year-old also has great vision as a playmaker. He's second on the team in points (16.7) with a team-high 6.7 assists per game in the 2024 NBA playoffs. His best performance came in Game 2, as Herro had 24 points and 14 assists. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 210 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.
So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 90-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
