We've got another exciting Eastern Conference matchup on Thursday's NBA schedule as the Indiana Pacers will visit the Miami Heat. Miami is 17-14 overall and 10-5 at home, while Indiana is 16-18 overall and 8-12 on the road. These teams have split their two meetings this season, with both taking place in Indianapolis. Miami is 13-18 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while Indiana is 14-19-1 versus the line.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Heat are favored by 1.5 points in the latest Pacers vs. Heat odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 223.5 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Pacers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 128-95 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Indiana. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the Pacers vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Pacers spread: Heat -1.5
- Heat vs. Pacers over/under: 223.5 points
- Heat vs. Pacers money line: Heat: -117, Pacers: -103
- Heat vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Heat vs. Pacers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Heat can cover
On Wednesday, the Heat were able to grind out a solid victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, taking the game 119-108, making it back-to-back victories for Miami. The Heat can attribute much of their success to Bam Adebayo, who almost dropped a triple-double on 23 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds, while Tyler Herro had 32 points. Jimmy Butler returned to the lineup after missing five games and had nine points, four rebounds and two assists.
The Heat have balance on both ends, ranking 10th in defensive rating and 11th in offensive rating. They are efficient on offense, committing the fifth-fewest turnovers per game while ranking in the top 10 in both 3-pointers made per game and 3-point percentage. Despite not having a rim protector, and ranking last in the NBA with 3.5 blocks per game, Miami is still stout defensively, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game. Additionally, the Heat have covered in four of their last five games. See which team to pick at SportsLine.
Why the Pacers can cover
Meanwhile, the Pacers came up short against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday and fell 120-112. Despite the loss, the Pacers flexed their depth with six players scoring in double-figures. Bennedict Mathurin led the way with 25 points and nine rebounds, while Myles Turner had a double-double on 16 points and 10 boards.
As that game indicates, Indiana has one of the deepest rosters in the league as seven players are putting up at least 10.3 points per game. It is also one of the league's best-shooting teams, ranking fourth in field-goal percentage and eighth in 3-point percentage. The team also typically dominates when it comes to fast break possessions, as it ranks eighth in fast break points per game and allows the fourth-fewest points in fast break possessions. The Pacers have also hit a hot streak when it comes to the spread, going 6-3 ATS over their last nine games, which came shortly after a 10-game losing streak ATS from November thru early December. See which team to pick at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Pacers picks
The model has simulated Pacers vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Pacers on Thursday, and which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pacers vs. Heat spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
