Last season, the Minnesota Timberwolves battled for the top seed in the Western Conference all season before advancing all the way to the Western Conference Finals.
This season, after a franchise-altering trade during training camp, they got out the gate by losing 10 of their first 18 games and looked as though they would have to battle to even make the play-in tournament in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference.
But lately, they've started to resemble the formidable squad that made such a run last season.
The question is: which is the real Timberwolves team? And, more importantly, who will they be when the season ends?
Let's explore.
Minnesota's identity last season
In 2023-24, the Timberwolves were a below-average offensive team, with a team Offensive Rating of 115.6 points per 100 possessions (16th in NBA) while scoring 113.0 PPG (18th in NBA). Their offensive weakness was largely tied to their lack of 3-point volume; the Timberwolves ranked 23rd in team 3-point attempts per game (32.7). They made them at a good clip (38.7 3P%, third in NBA) but shot so few they still ranked only 15th in 3-pointers made.
The key to the Timberwolves' success was their elite defense. They led the NBA with a team Defensive Rating of 109.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, and also led the league with only 106.5 points allowed per game as well. Anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves' defense was stifling enough to overcome their lack of long-range shooting.
How things started this season
When the Timberwolves traded away Karl-Anthony Towns, they parted with one of their best 3-point threats (2.2 3PG, 41.6 3P%). But both Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, the key players they brought back in the trade, are also strong 3-point shooters. In addition, Anthony Edwards opened this season shooting 3-pointers at a volume and efficiency he's never shown before (4.0 3PG, third in NBA, at 41.1 3P%).
The result has been a Timberwolves' offense that now ranks fifth in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted (40.1 3PA) and made (14.9 3PG) while still shooting them at a solid clip (37.2 3P%, 11th in NBA). Despite this, the offense has gotten worse: the Timberwolves rank 21st in the NBA with a team Offensive Rating of 111.3, and they are scoring only 109.3 PPG (23rd in the NBA). This was a big reason for the Timberwolves' slow start.
But the bigger reason was their defense. Or lack thereof.
Through those first 18 games of the season, the Timberwolves were allowing 111.3 PPG. That mark would rank near league average (113.0 PPG), but that is a far cry from their top-of-league defense from last season. That is, in large part, why the team went from Western Conference finalists to a below-.500 squad.
Then, that 18th game, Edwards snapped. The Timberwolves had just given up a 12-point lead in the final seven minutes to suffer an 11-point loss to the Kings, and Edwards didn't pull any punches. He ripped his team as frontrunners: "Our identity right now is, I think it's we soft as hell as a team, internally," he said. Then he personalized it further, adding: "Not to the other team, but internally, we soft. We can't talk to each other. And we've got to figure it out, because we can't go down this road."
Improved play since Edwards' comments
Edwards' words seemed to light a fire, because in their next four games they held their opponents to 92, 80, 80 and 90 points, their four lowest totals allowed to that date. Since Edwards' tirade, the Timberwolves have won nine of their 13 games. They've scored fewer points at 105.4 PPG, but they are allowing an average of 101.5 PPG, a mark that would be the best in the NBA if they'd maintained it over the full season (Thunder, 103.3 PPG allowed).
Finding their defense gives the Timberwolves the chance to reclaim their level from last season, but they still have to fix their offense. Transitioning from Towns to Randle has proven difficult, with Randle more used to an iso-style off the dribble as opposed to Towns' ability to finish both off the catch-and-shoot and in the paint. Randle and Edwards are both iso players, but neither are excellent ball-handlers or distributors, so they tend to take turns instead of synergizing off of one another to lift the team.
The key to the Timberwolves' team offense moving forward might be the other player they got back in the Towns trade, DiVincenzo. He's known as a shooter, but he also has playmaking skills with the ball in his hands. Mike Conley is getting older, but DiVincenzo has the size to play with him and the skill set to facilitate the offense when Conley sits. After scuffling for much of the season, DiVincenzo has increased his numbers to 16.8 PPG, 3.7 3PG (48.9 3P%) and 3.2 APG in 27.7 MPG in his last six outings.
How to bet the Timberwolves going forward
If the Timberwolves can maintain their defense while improving their team offense, they have the upside to be as good or even surpass the team they were last season. Their defense has the same pillars, and now they are playing to potential. The offense has even more upside with more overall talent, if they can continue to improve their ability to work together. Which I believe to be a reasonable bet.
So, let's look at the futures ramifications of a team of that caliber moving forward at current odds.
ESPN BET
has the Timberwolves regular season wins set at 47.5. They are set at -350 to make the playoffs, +4000 to win the Northwest division, +1100 to win the West and +1800 to win the Championship.
The best bet from this group is over 47.5 wins (-115). To reach that mark, the Timberwolves would need to win 31 of their remaining 51 games (60.8 win%). Last season, the Timberwolves won at a 68.3% clip. And since Edwards' "soft" speech, the Timberwolves have returned to winning at a 69.2% rate. If they maintain, they would sail over 47.5 wins.
They are a good bet to make the playoffs, but -350 isn't enough juice in such a deep Western Conference. And trailing the Thunder by nine games, they are too far back to realistically project to catch them in the Northwest Division.
The other most interesting bet is Timberwolves to win the West. At +1100 they are getting long odds in a race where there isn't a large gap between their upside and the other competitors. The Timberwolves were just in the Conference Finals last season, are playing at a high level now and still have achievable upside to be better before the season is done. If you are looking for a longshot with a reasonable chance to hit the mark, this is one of the better values on the board.
