Paul George was a risk when the Los Angeles Clippers acquired him in 2019, but a justifiable one. Nobody knew what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was going to become. Nobody knew Kawhi Leonard's body would betray him to the degree that it has. Nobody knew that the rules would change making it harder to build around that duo. When the Clippers landed George and Leonard five years ago, they united two All-NBA players at their absolute peaks who were still in their 20s and played the most important position in the sport. They were immediate championship favorites.
That is what you hoard assets to trade for: a genuine chance at the title. The Clippers had one. It turned out to only be one. Leonard was on the court as the Clippers blew a 3-1 lead to the Denver Nuggets in the second round of the Orlando bubble. He hasn't played in the final Clippers game of a season since. But the Clippers never wavered. They never lost faith that if they could just get Leonard on the floor for the last game of the season, it would end with them hoisting a trophy.
This was another justifiable risk, at least the first or second time. By the time George and Leonard combined to play just 108 games in the 2022-23 season leading into a first-round exit, the Clippers probably should have seen enough. The optimal strategic decision at that point likely would have been a rebuild. George and Leonard still had significant trade value -- especially separated, where their combined injury risk would be mitigated. The league's collective fear of the new CBA hadn't quite set in.
It would have been painful for a few years, and it would have meant sending the Thunder some very valuable draft picks, but it would have at least charted the Clippers on a reasonable path moving forward. As Leonard and George themselves proved, Los Angeles teams can bounce back quickly with enough assets. Players always want to go there.
Even if the Clippers couldn't stomach a true teardown, they could have run out the clock. Keep George and Leonard together until their obligation to Oklahoma City expired, and then start again from square one. It would have meant a few years outside of the championship picture, but those two together, when healthy at least, would have remained reasonably competitive.
Instead they doubled down, handing out control of three more future first-round picks to land James Harden. The gamble looked worthwhile when the George, Leonard and Harden trio went on a 26-5 stretch in December and January. Things went south from there. Leonard, again, got hurt. Finally, the Clippers drew a line in the sand... except it wasn't for Leonard. He extended for $153 million over three years. They wanted George to do the same. He bet on himself and reached free agency in search of a max contract. The Clippers never relented on that fourth year. Now he's gone as the 76ers scooped him up for $212 million over four years.
There are sensible reasons for letting George walk. He's not quite the injury risk that Leonard is, but he's not exactly a paragon of health, either. The second apron is, at least for a team like the Clippers, as terrifying as advertised. With so many future picks already owed out, the thought of locking picks even deeper in the future at No. 30 in the first round by spending more than two consecutive years above the second apron line was untenable. The Clippers had already bet their future on George once. They ultimately decided they weren't willing to do it again.
But walking away when they did ensured that they wouldn't see that initial gamble through. Brief as it was, the 26-5 stretch was something. It was real. For two months, the Clippers were arguably the best team in the NBA. Unlikely as they were to repeat that stretch much less in May in June, it was a viable North Star. With Leonard, George and Harden, the Clippers could continue at least trying to win the championship.
What exactly are the Clippers without Paul George? They're going to try to pivot. Wherever they land won't lead them into the championship picture. If there was another George-level free agent on the market, he'd be getting the same four-year max offers that George did. They'll chase big-name southern California natives like Klay Thompson and DeMar DeRozan as replacements. Thompson can't replicate George's shot-creation. DeRozan can't replicate his shooting. Neither is close as a defender. Derrick Jones Jr. will help on that front, but his shooting history before last season is a major question mark. It won't help him that Luka Doncic isn't creating his shots anymore.
The Clippers could clear paths to significant cap space next offseason even with Leonard and Harden combining to make almost $90 million. Doing so would probably mean letting go of at least one of Norm Powell or Ivica Zubac, if not both. Right now, Leonard, Harden, Jones and Powell are the only Clippers with guaranteed contracts for the 2025-26 season. But, besides Donovan Mitchell (who is expected to re-sign in Cleveland anyway), is there going to be a free agent worth paying next summer even if the Clippers did clear the room?
Why pay Jimmy Butler long-term if you wouldn't pay George? Why pay an aging Rudy Gobert instead of Zubac in his prime. Kyrie Irving has a player option in Dallas, but if he wanted to leave Luka Doncic to live in California badly enough, he probably would have done it with the Lakers given his connection to LeBron James. The Pelicans will probably trade Brandon Ingram to a team that extends him before free agency. And of course, even if you land one of these players, all of the current problems persist. Leonard is still injury-prone. Harden still can't defend, and he still gets his talent stolen by the Monstars every spring. If there's a short-term path back into the title picture, it's not immediately evident.
There isn't an easy way to rebuild either. They don't control another one of their first-round picks until 2030. The logical rebuild path, if the Clippers wanted to pursue it, would be to try to get some of their own picks back like the Nets just did. Leonard is the only player who theoretically has the value to do that, but in practice, it probably isn't feasible. The 76ers, who own the last two, won't have the contracts at hand to trade for Leonard after acting as a cap space team this summer.
That leaves the Thunder. Frankly, if they wanted to make such an aggressive win-now move, there are better players they could do it for. They're already loaded when it comes to wing defense. Leonard's late-game shot-creation would obviously help, but Gilgeous-Alexander provides enough of it. The Thunder are trying to be fiscally responsible with max rookie extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren looming in two years. They'd be a second apron team in the last year of Leonard's deal in this scenario, a fate they'd like to avoid. If they were going to trade a bunch of their future picks, why not do it for someone younger? Someone healthier? Someone who fills more of a need? Why is Leonard, specifically, the player they should go for when, to this point, they haven't really gone for any veteran players?
Frankly, at this stage, it makes more sense for the Thunder to continue to short the Clippers than it does for them to take Leonard off of their hands. The youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history is suddenly one mysterious Leonard lower-body injury away from picking up a high lottery pick... and they have three chances at it. Given their youth and their finances, that upside gives them a chance to extend this current window by several years. The Thunder could contend, and perhaps even be among the favorites, for a decade. Leonard's health is far too precarious to sacrifice that possible longevity for. Even if Leonard does stay healthy, there's plenty of. value for the Thunder in watching this Clippers team decay through age. The Western Conference is simultaneously loaded and young. If the Clippers hand them the No. 12 pick three times? That's a major win! Remember, a No. 12 pick originally from the Clippers got the Thunder Jalen Williams.
Harden has next to no trade value, especially on this contract. The Clippers were the only team that was really interested the last time he was available. Zubac could net a decent first-round pick. Powell? Maybe a bad one. There is no youth to speak of here. Among the 10 most-used Clippers last season, seven were in their 30s. The youngest were Zubac and Amir Coffey in their age-26 seasons. Bones Hyland isn't saving the day here. The path to a true rebuild here is narrower than the one to contention.
And that's what makes the choice to let George walk so confusing. As painful as keeping him could have been, it would have at least offered direction. There was proof of concept behind the George-Leonard-Harden trio, and the Clippers punted on it after eight months. Why even make the Harden trade at that point? They surely knew what George wanted in an extension. That's not a move you make for one year, because doing it hamstrung your future for several more.
But the Clippers did it anyway, and now, well, they're kind of just screwed. They're not going to contend for a title. They don't have the picks to trade for a replacement star. There isn't a clear free agent for them to target next year, and even if there was, they'd have to gut the supporting cast to fit in another huge salary. They're five years away from controlling their own pick and it's unlikely they'll be able to trade for those picks back.
The likeliest outcome is that they hover around the Play-In portion of the standings next season before steadily declining as Leonard and Harden age before the Clippers ultimately start handing the Thunder and 76ers valuable draft picks. Some version of this future was possible the moment the Clippers traded for George. But they had their chance to avoid it and they had their chance to try to justify it with a championship pursuit. They didn't pull off either, and now they're probably going to sink into irrelevance for the next several years.
