Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
The NBA Finals has a rich history of putting its champions through one last test before their coronation. Remember Denver's Game 5 rock fight with Miami last year, when the Nuggets had to prove they could win with defense and physicality? The Warriors needed to overcome one last Draymond Green controversy in 2022 when he was benched down the stretch of Game 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to beat the Suns from the foul line, and he made 17-of-19 attempts on the way to 50 points in the Game 6 clincher.
There's always some narrative or weakness that comes back up, once last time, before the champs become the champs. Well, what has been the narrative surrounding Boston? The Celtics play down to the level of their competition, they mess around and let inferior teams hang around. They did that in Game 4 and got blown out. They learned their lesson. They're going to come out for Game 5 ready to end that notion once and for all. The Pick: Celtics -6.5
We've played four Finals games and we've had four Finals games end with total scores below 210 points. That's the tenor of this series. Throw out the Game 4 anomaly. When the Celtics are at their best defensively, the Mavericks are still going to have a hard time generating lobs and corner 3s (unless Dereck Lively II wants to keep taking them, which Boston would eagerly accept). Boston can still defend Luka Doncic one-on-one, and that's a recipe for offensive struggles. That is especially true on the road in a possible Finals clincher. The Pick: Under 209.5
I'm continuing my strategy of picking Luka Doncic point total overs. He just scored 25 points in the first half of Game 4 and only left early because the Mavericks had the game in hand. Boston's defense is designed for Doncic to score rather than pass. If this game is close, he's going to need to push for 40 points to keep the Mavericks in it. That's what the Boston defense is giving him. The Pick: Doncic Over 32.5 Points
Daniel Gafford's minutes have gone down in the Finals due to the return of Maxi Kleber. The Mavericks now have a small-ball option at center, and Lively is the superior option for rim-protection and interior offense. Gafford had a great Game 2, but he's otherwise been quiet in the series, and in Game 4, Dallas turned to Lively earlier than usual given the desperation of the situation. I'm expecting an underwhelming Gafford performance. The Pick: Gafford Under 4.5 Rebounds
I'm trying to envision what a Celtics championship winner looks like, and the last one feels instructive. Boston dominated in a 39-point win over the Lakers in Game 6 of the 2008 Finals by making 13 3-pointers, a tame number by modern standards, but the fifth-most it'd hit in a game all season back then. Firing away from deep has been Boston's identity all season, so I like the idea of almost any 3-point prop for the Celtics. But Sam Hauser has made seven 3s in the past two games. Role players, especially bench players, getting hot from downtown is a championship clincher special, with Mike Miller (2012), Shane Battier (2013), Patty Mills (2014) and Fred VanVleet (2019) all making five or more 3s in their clinchers recently. My actual pick is going to be only two or more 3s for Hauser at -110, but FanDuel is also offering three or more 3s for +280 if you want to ride that history. The Pick: Hauser to make two or more 3-Pointers
