The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver gains a basketball IQ advantage as a series progresses. Nikola Jokic is going to do a better job of solving your team than you are of solving him. But early in series? They're not exactly vulnerable, as they've won five straight Game 1's, but they're closer to mortal. That is especially true with Jamal Murray seemingly compromised physically. He just shot 40% on the dot from the field in the first round against a Lakers team with putrid point-of-attack defenders. I need to see him prove it in this series before I can comfortably take Denver. The Pick: Timberwolves +4.5
Minnesota's No. 1 defense in the regular season obviously suggests that the under is the play on the point total here, but what really sold it for me was how they handled Game 1 of the Suns series. Phoenix swept Minnesota in the regular season, and its jump shooting was a seemingly perfect answer to Minnesota's drop defense. Well, the Timberwolves came out for Game 1 with a whole new game plan. Minnesota gave Kevin Durant what he wanted so it could stop Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Rudy Gobert defended in space more because he trusted the defenders around him to do his job. It led to a dominant defensive series. Denver is better-equipped to solve Minnesota's defense than Phoenix was because its system and players are far more versatile. But that's going to take time. Game 1 will be low-scoring. The Pick: Under 208
Speaking of disappointing first-round series, Devin Booker averaged just 20.3 points on 43.2% shooting in the first three games of Phoenix's first-round loss to Minnesota before erupting in Game 4. Jaden McDaniels was behind Booker's struggles, and he's likely to draw the Murray matchup in Game 1. He's an unorthodox matchup for Murray, but a perfect one if his speed is at all limited. McDaniels has such a size advantage over Murray that he should have a fairly hard time finding clean jumpers. Until he proves he's healthy, I'm expecting him to have some trouble with Minnesota's gigantic defense. The Pick: Jamal Murray Under 23.5 Points
