Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
This is my favorite bet on Saturday's slate. Playoff games tend to be lower-scoring than their regular-season counterparts. Here we have the No. 3-ranked defense (Orlando) and the No. 7 ranked defense (Cleveland). Donovan Mitchell has played in only 11 games since the All-Star break, and he's averaged just 19.5 points on 40.4% shooting in those games. He's clearly still playing hurt. The Magic have given Jonathan Isaac, the best per-minute defender in the NBA, a bigger role lately and even started him in the season finale. This is going to be an all-defense series. The lines aren't reflecting that yet. They will soon. The Pick: Under 207.5
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
This is just a nightmare matchup for Minnesota. Their league-best defense is predicated on Rudy Gobert's drop-defense at the rim and the relentless pressure they can put on the ball with Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. How do you beat drop-coverage? By shooting jumpers. The Suns do that as well as anyone. Minnesota isn't going to use all three of their top perimeter defenders at the same time because that crowds Mike Conley out of the lineup if they're playing two bigs. That means one of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will have someone to pick on. The Pick: Suns +1.5
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Kyle Lowry has played 35 playoff games with Nick Nurse as his head coach. He's averaged 37.5 minutes in those games. Even normal coaches trim their rotations and rely on the players they trust most far more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Nick Nurse isn't a normal coach. He's already the most starter-heavy coach in the NBA (except perhaps his counterpart in this series). That's going to mean plenty of Lowry, who averaged 4.6 assists per game once he joined the 76ers. This line is more than two assists below that average. The Pick: Lowry Over 2.5 Assists
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
D'Angelo Russell scored 25 points in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. That's not his average. That's his four-game total. By Game 4, Darvin Ham had lost so much trust in him that Russell was removed from the starting lineup and played less than 15 minutes in the series-decider. Russell scored 17 points the last time these teams played, but Ham largely didn't play him down the stretch, instead removing him with 7:37 remaining and only bringing him back when the Lakers trailed by seven with 1:34 remaining. This isn't his matchup. Ham doesn't trust him against Denver. The Pick: Russell Under 15.5 Points
