The regular season is officially over and while 20 teams still have some basketball left between the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs, there's now 10 teams who will immediately start prepping for next season. The first step in the offseason will begin with the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery, which takes place on May 12, and now we have a clearer picture of which teams will have the best odds to land near the top of the draft.
The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, and now they'll play the waiting game to see who will come out on top. The Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers finished the season with identical records (21-61), so a random drawing will be held prior to the Draft Lottery to determine which of those two teams will have the third and fourth best odds at the No. 1 overall pick.
The 2024 Draft isn't as loaded as last year's class, but it still gives the bottom dwelling teams a chance to rebuild in hopes of finding a player or two who they can build around for the future, or, at the very least, get a player who can be a solid rotation guy. Also unlike the 2023 draft, there isn't a single player who is the undisputed No. 1 pick, with our draft experts having differing thoughts on who will be the first off the board. Right now, Gary Parrish has French center Alex Sarr going No. 1 overall, while Kyle Boone has another Frenchman in forward Zaccharie Risacher being picked first.
After the Pistons and Wizards, here's how the remaining odds fall before the Draft Lottery:
| Team | Record | Winning % | Top-four pick (%) | Top overall pick (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Pistons | 14-68 | .171 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
Washington Wizards | 15-67 | .183 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
Charlotte Hornets (tied) | 21-61 | .256 | -- | -- |
Portland Trail Blazers (tied) | 21-61 | .256 | -- | -- |
22-60 | .268 | 42.1% | 10.5% | |
25-57 | .305 | 37.2% | 9.0% | |
27-55 | .329 | 31.9% | 7.5% | |
31-51 | .378 | 26.3% | 6.0% | |
32-50 | .390 | 20.3% | 4.5% | |
36-46 | .439 | 13.9% | 3.0% |
