When we convened COP28 in Dubai last year, the Global Stocktake—the first report card on progress toward the Paris Agreement’s aims—showed the world was falling far short of achieving its climate goals. We knew we needed to find a practical pathway to keeping the 1.5°C warming target within reach. And in delivering what’s known as the UAE Consensus at the annual U.N. climate summit, we achieved what many thought was impossible: an agreement among nations for a just, orderly, and equitable energy transition.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]The UAE Consensus contains commitments to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency, and end deforestation, all by the end of the decade. Nations reframed the narrative around climate action as an opportunity for socio-economic growth, as opposed to a burden to bear. In the end, determination conquered doubt.
COP28 rightly focused on finance, the essential success factor for climate progress, and landed a win with the launch of the long-awaited fund for loss and damage. Overall, COP28 mobilized $85 billion in commitments, including $30 billion for Altérra, the world’s largest private climate investment fund, for which I am the chairman. And to-date, more than $700 million has been pledged to the loss and damage fund. Without available, accessible, and affordable finance, even our most ambitious goals will remain just that. That is why we support COP29’s call for nations to deliver a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance in Azerbaijan. An NCQG is essential to providing the means for implementing the UAE Consensus.
Inclusivity was also key to success at COP28: we engaged all sectors of society, including the private sector and the energy industry, to translate global goals into real-world solutions. While some were critical of including the energy sector, I believe its inclusion proved to be an asset. One powerful example of the value of inclusivity was the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, committing signatories to zero-out methane emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by or before 2050. Energy systems transformation is one of three era-defining megatrends that will shape our future, alongside the growth of AI and the rise of emerging markets in the Global South.
Navigating the impacts of these megatrends will require significant investments of trillions of dollars. Yet, the return on those investments will be even greater in terms of sustainable economic growth and climate resilience. The world could achieve two-thirds of Paris-aligned targets just by delivering on the UAE Consensus goals of tripling renewables capacity and doubling energy efficiency, according to the International Energy Agency.
Progress is already being made, with a record 473 GW of renewables capacity being added worldwide last year. Generative AI meanwhile is predicted to be able to boost global GDP by at least $7 trillion over a 10-year period, and cut greenhouse gas emissions by between 5-10% by 2030 through helping scale climate solutions. AI’s exponential-growth, however, is driving electricity demand from data centers, which could more than double by 2030. Meeting that increased demand will require us to integrate renewables, nuclear, and gas in the most cost and carbon- efficient way. And the technology, energy, and investment sectors will need to collaborate much more closely. At the same time, we must stimulate the adoption of a low-carbon development pathway across emerging economies of the Global South as their demand for energy grows. That means ensuring greater access to finance, capital investment, and technology. Today, 120 countries in the Global South attract just 15% of global renewables investment.
Meeting these challenges will not be easy. Governments must raise their ambitions and support renewable energy and infrastructure targets, and incentivize private investors more effectively. As I hand over the COP presidency to H.E. Mukhtar Babayev in Azerbaijan, I believe blueprints can be transformed into breakthroughs.
