Macau’s gross gaming revenues (GGR) have fallen to their lowest level in more than six months in June, with GGR for the first 23 days estimated at MOP13.3 billion or MOP578 million per day, according to JP Morgan’s weekly channel checks.
“This suggests the daily run-rate fell to MOP514 million over the past week, the lowest level in over six months,” wrote JP Morgan’s analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.
The JP Morgan analysts attributed this decline mostly to soft seasonality, such as post-holiday slowdown and the impact of UEFA Euro 2024, as well as poor VIP win rates. They also noted that June is typically the seasonally weakest month of the year.
Despite the decline, JP Morgan still forecasts June’s GGR to reach between MOP$17.5 billion and MOP18 billion. For the second quarter to date, GGR is likely to edge down 2% to 3% quarter-on-quarter, led by a 2% decline in mass and 5% in VIP.
In May, Macau’s mass GGR reached an all-time high at 115% of pre-COVID levels, according to JP Morgan. The bank noted that GGR in May jumped nearly 30% year-on-year to MOP20.2 billion, implying a daily run-rate of MOP651 million.
On the contrary, according recent report from Moody’s Ratings, Macau’s casino industry is poised for a stronger recovery in earnings and cash flow over the next 12 to 18 months when compared with other Asian gaming markets. This is driven by an expected rebound in visitor numbers as the region continues to emerge from the pandemic. However, the outlook is more uncertain for casinos in other parts of Asia as the Chinese government appears to be discouraging its citizens from gambling overseas.
TC/NS
