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Japan sees higher-than-usual risk of megaquake off Pacific Coast

The Japanese weather agency said Thursday that the risks of a massive earthquake occurring around the Nankai Trough that runs along the Pacific coast have become higher than…


  • Aug 14 2024
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Japan sees higher-than-usual risk of megaquake off Pacific Coast
Japan sees higher-than-usual risk of megaquake off Pacific Coast

The Japanese weather agency said Thursday that the risks of a massive earthquake occurring around the Nankai Trough that runs along the Pacific coast have become higher than usual, issuing the first such advisory of its kind.

The advisory was released just hours after a magnitude 7.1 quake rattled southwestern Japan, with its focus located in waters off Miyazaki Prefecture, on the western edge of the Nankai Trough. It does not recommend evacuation but calls for reviewing routine quake preparedness and staying alert for about a week.

In the worst-case scenario, a powerful temblor could shake a wide area of Japan -- from the Kanto region centering on Tokyo to the southwestern Kyushu region -- and high tsunami waves could engulf the coastal areas of Kanto to Okinawa, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The Japanese government has predicted there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, with a 2012 estimate showing that the number of deaths could reach up to 323,000.

Naoshi Hirata, the head of an advisory body to the weather agency that assessed the latest quake, said the probability of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough has now increased by "several times" compared to usual.

The Nankai Trough extends a distance of approximately 800 kilometers where the Eurasian and Philippine Sea tectonic plates intersect.

Hirata also said he cannot predict the exact areas that will require disaster preparedness but called for caution against any eventuality.

He also said he feels there is no need to refrain from swimming in the sea but advised beachgoers to check where to shelter in place in the case a tsunami warning is issued.

The Japanese weather agency started operating a system to release special information regarding the Nankai Trough quake in 2017, which is activated when an earthquake with magnitude 6.8 or above hits areas where megaquakes are predicted or when unusual crustal movements are observed at plate boundaries.

A notification that investigation is under way will be released within 30 minutes and an emergency meeting of the agency's Nankai Trough quake advisory body will be convened.

If the risk of a potential major earthquake is determined at the meeting along the Nankai Trough, the agency will issue a "major earthquake advisory" or a "major earthquake warning" possibly in around two hours from the quake.

When a warning is issued, residents living in coastal areas could be asked to evacuate in advance and remain away for about a week.

In consideration of the advisory, Central Japan Railway Co said it will run the Tokaido Shinkansen Line at a slower pace than usual for about one week, while suspending operations of some expresses in the western part of the nation.

The 4:43 p.m. quake Thursday occurred at a depth of around 30 kilometers off Miyazaki Prefecture and registered lower 6 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 in the city of Nichinan in the southern part of the prefecture, the weather agency said.

Shortly afterward, the agency began its first investigation into whether there is any link between the temblor and a potential Nankai Trough earthquake. The system has been in operation since 2017.

Around a dozen injuries were reported and several buildings were damaged, according to disaster management minister Yoshifumi Matsumura.

When an earthquake with a lower 6 seismic intensity happens, "It becomes difficult to remain standing. Doors may not open. Wall tiles and window glass may be damaged and fall," the agency said.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on the public to "prepare to evacuate immediately if an earthquake occurs," telling reporters in Tokyo, "To avoid unnecessary confusion, please absolutely refrain from spreading so-called false information" through social media.

Tsunami advisories were issued for Kochi, Ehime, Oita, Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, but the weather agency lifted them all by 10 p.m.

Tsunami with heights of around 50 centimeters and 20 cm were observed in Miyazaki and southwestern Kochi, respectively, the agency said.

No abnormalities were found at the Ikata and Sendai nuclear power plants in Ehime and Kagoshima prefectures, nor in the environmental radioactivity levels in the surrounding areas, the Nuclear Regulation Authority said.

The powerful temblor also disrupted transportation services around Miyazaki Prefecture in Kyushu, one of the country's four main islands. Some flights connecting Miyazaki airport with Osaka, as well as Tokyo's Haneda, were canceled.

Services of the Kyushu and Nishi Kyushu shinkansen bullet trains were temporarily suspended due to the quake, the operator said. A ferry from Miyazaki to Kobe in western Japan was canceled.

Japanese meatpacking firm NH Foods Ltd briefly suspended operations at the plants of its three subsidiaries in Miyazaki Prefecture for checkups.

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