Happy new year! This will be the Year of the Rabbit in the 12-year cycle of the Chinese zodiac, and specifically the Water Rabbit in the 60-year cycle. In Kabuto-cho, Japan's equivalent of Wall Street, market participants believe the old saying "The Year of the Rabbit is a year for taking a leap." I hope all of you will make a giant leap in your business this year, and it will be our greatest pleasure if Nikkei Asia contributes to your success.
One thing 2023 will be remembered for is that India will become the most populous country in the world. From an editorial point of view, we expect to have more stories on India this year. And of course I hope that the war in Ukraine will end with a peace settlement, that China will recover from a chaotic pandemic without suffering millions of deaths after abandoning its zero-COVID policy, and that U.S.-China tensions will ease and avoid a possible Taiwan crisis.
Our latest Big Story is a special story guide: We take eight Big Stories published in 2022, and a writer or editor for each one comments on their work, explains their intentions and talks about the aftermath.
In 2022, Nikkei Asia won awards in five international journalism competitions, and in most cases, it was Big Stories that were nominated. One of the eight stories we focus on, "The resilience myth: Fatal flaws in the push to secure chip supply chains" by Cheng Ting-Fang and Lauly Li, is a good example, winning the prestigious U.S. National Press Foundation's Hinrich Foundation Award. Big Stories are always our best features, and I hope this week's Big Story guide will provide a good introduction for you.
Both Market Spotlight and Business Spotlight look back at the year 2022 and ahead to 2023. Many analysts and market participants see a possibility that the world will face recession because of monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, aimed at easing inflation. This is the subject of this week's Market Spotlight.
Business Spotlight focuses more on the financial sector. Higher interest rates let banks have a wider spread between their lending and borrowing rates, so banks in countries tightening their monetary policies benefit from the higher interest rates. On the flip side, banks in China and Japan, whose central banks are keeping interest rates very low, may face difficulties.
Asia Insight features the Ukraine war and Asia. China, India and many ASEAN countries rely on income from Russian oil, crops, fertilizer, military weapons and tourists. Although it is sometimes overlooked, those countries' imports help support Russia's ability to continue the war.
From the Life & Arts section, Tea Leaves examines the potential resurgence of excessive tourism. People seem very enthusiastic about traveling again as national border controls are loosened, and I agree there is a risk that overtourism could become a serious problem again, just like in the days before the pandemic.
What can we do to avoid the negative impacts of flocks of tourists? The Bali-based author Dave Smith notes that the example of the Philippine island of Boracay shows us a possible alternative. In 2018, then-President Rodrigo Duterte called the island a "cesspool" and closed it to tourism to give the environment a chance to heal.
Four years later, the government released a statement titled "Mission Accomplished." According to the story, more than 1,000 illegal structures had been demolished, while hotels and other businesses had built more than 100 small sewage treatment plants. Please also read last week's Asia Insight, titled "Can ASEAN avoid overtourism as arrivals return to pre-COVID levels?" to dive deep into this topic.
What to watch
On New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, many countries' leaders make speeches to the nation. Similarly, the last closing price of 2022 and the first opening price of 2023 are important indicators of market sentiment in the new year.
The 118th U.S. Congress starts on Jan. 3. Reflecting the results of the midterm elections, Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, and the U.S. is expected to become more hawkish on China. Jan. 6 is the second anniversary of the Capitol attack. The remarks of former President Donald Trump and his supporters' reaction will be worth watching to judge if he can again become the GOP's presidential nominee.
The development of China's COVID situation needs close attention. The daily total of confirmed new cases in Zhejiang alone may reach 2 million, according to the local government. In big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the worst may already have passed, judging from such alternative data as Baidu Epidemic Big Data, based on trends in the words people search for.
Jan. 7 is Christmas Day for the Russian Orthodox Church. A cease-fire is longed for, but so far there is no sign of one.
Stay safe and healthy, and have a wonderful weekend!
Shigesaburo Okumura Editor-in-chief, Nikkei Asia
Follow me on Twitter @ShigesaburoO
Chips, churches and China: The best of the Big Story 2022
A look back at some of Nikkei Asia's most memorable cover stories of the year
The resilience myth: Fatal flaws in the push to secure chip supply chains
From China to the U.S. to Europe, semiconductor makers are being showered with subsidies, but to what effect?
Inflation, monetary tightening sway Asian markets in 2022
Singapore dollar, Indian stocks show resilience in 'torrid time'
Asia's rising interest rates boost banks -- but risks grow for 2023
Lenders in Japan and China lag peers enjoying fatter borrowing margins
How Ukraine war shook and shaped Asia in 2022
Myanmar relations, Japanese energy and Chinese battle capability all in flux
Trashing paradise: The perils of post-pandemic tourism
After enforced lull, travel returns to Indonesia's Bali with a vengeance
Can ASEAN avoid overtourism as arrivals return to pre-COVID levels?
Governments struggle toward a more sustainable and equitable hospitality sector
