I also recommend Nikkei Asia's exclusive interview with Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran.

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Dec 09 2022
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I also recommend Nikkei Asia's exclusive interview with Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran.

Hello from Tokyo. I've said it many times before in this newsletter and, alas, I must say it again: Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, was right. As he predicted almost a year ago, China's zero-COVID policy has been one of the biggest global risks of 2022 and, finally, the country seems to be looking to exit the mess and make an economic recovery.

On Wednesday, Dec. 7, Beijing announced a rollback of its zero-COVID policy in a marked shift away from draconian virus curbs that triggered nationwide unrest, putting the nation on course to living with the respiratory illness.

We have many good stories on this topic, and more to come. Our Asia Insight feature, which looked at China's predicament, was published a day before the announcement. The most important points are, first, Zhongnanhai, the country's political nerve center, was in a sense forced to abandon the policy, having faced "the biggest act of resistance in China since the Tiananmen demonstrations in 1989," as former Tsinghua University lecturer Wu Qiang commented in the story. Of course, the smartest bureaucrats in Beijing had been prepared for the easing, but the scenario must be considerably different from what they expected.

Second, concerns remain. The authors point out that "only about 40% of those over the age of 80 have received boosters" and it is estimated that 1.3 million to 2 million people could die in a full-fledged reopening.

According to a paper by Kyoto University associate professor Ei Murakami, it is broadly believed that 1.1 million to 1.6 million people died in the Cultural Revolution (1966-76), and 30 million to 45 million perished during the Great Leap Forward (1958-62). In other words, a full-fledged reopening could trigger a disaster that calls to mind these tragedies from the Mao Zedong era.

Is President Xi Jinping ready to display Mao levels of cruelty? Perhaps, but I have my doubts. Xi sacrificed the springtime of his life and was forced to move to the countryside during the Cultural Revolution. He knows the fear and power of mass mobilization. Instead of Little Red Books, students this time around were armed with sheets of white paper. I suspect the recent protest scenes reminded Xi of the Red Guards during those tumultuous years of his stolen youth.

It is critical for the elderly to be fully vaccinated in order to avoid tragedy. I recommend a report by Caixin, which focuses on what comes next in China. As for the white paper movement, please also read Katsuji Nakazawa's China Up Close, published on Dec. 1.

We also have a special report on Women's Wealth that explores the journeys of female trailblazers such as fighter pilots, cricket stars and successful scientists. These women have broken into professions long dominated by men and are pushing for institutional equality that will create ripple effects for several generations to come. Their stories are inspirational. The report is not only informative, it is also visually rich and entertaining -- please do not miss the accompanying videos.

Business Spotlight is a fascinating look at the "King of Silk," Jim Thompson. The new CEO of the Thai brand is Frank Cancelloni, who previously oversaw the operations of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein as president of PVH Asia. He is determined to transform the company into a rival of such bigger lifestyle brands as Ralph Lauren and Giorgio Armani.

I also recommend Nikkei Asia's exclusive interview with Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran. He has made clear his ambition to start producing semiconductors in India and is ready to invest a surprising $90 billion over five years.

Market Spotlight casts an analytical eye on Vietnam's stock market. The bourse has largely underperformed since January 2022 relative to the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index, in part because it is exposed to idiosyncratic risks related to real estate and corruption. A local data provider predicts in the story that the high volatility will continue for the next one to two quarters.

For your weekend reading, I recommend our Tea Leaves piece on Myanmar tourism. The conclusion -- that it is still too early to visit the country while it is under military rule -- is somehow disappointing. Still, the story and its beautiful photos powerfully communicate the country's charms and potential to become a global tourist destination.

What to watch

We should keep a close eye on how far and fast China is easing its zero-COVID policy. Booster injections for the elderly and importing Western vaccines should be keys to a safe and stable policy shift.

Monetary policy meetings by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Dec. 13-14), the European Central Bank (Dec. 15) and the Bank of England (Dec. 15) are also scheduled. Market participants expect the banks to loosen their stances.

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is entering the quarterfinal stage. The final match will be at 18:00 on Sunday, Dec. 18, local time.

Lastly, I have a short announcement. 2022 is drawing to a close and our gaze is shifting to a new year. We at Nikkei Asia want to know what our dear readers think lies ahead for the region in 2023. We invite you to send in your projections, which will be compiled and published in our New Year's Big Story in January. We would appreciate it indeed if you fill out this form. Thank you very much for your participation!

Stay safe and healthy, and have a wonderful weekend!

Shigesaburo Okumura Editor-in-chief, Nikkei Asia

Follow me on Twitter @ShigesaburoO