Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks

Happy new year, everybody! Now that we are squeaking into 2025, it’s time to look at how many of your 2024 predictions came true and then think about what this coming year will bring.

As always, I’m just going to comment on the predictions that came true. If you took the opposite position on one of these, well, then your comment will appear there as well. But if you were on your own with an incorrect prediction, no need to shine a spotlight. You can find yourself in the Graveyard at the bottom.

Remember to leave your predictions for 2025 in the comments. I will as usual only consider the first prediction you make when I evaluate guesses next year. Anything after the first will be ignored in the review.

The Alaska/Hawaiian Merger Greg – When the AS/HA merger goes through, HA will get to move to T6 Nick Bax – HA/AS’s merger is still on track to close in early 2025. Floyd Holder – Alaska and Hawaiian merger will be shutdown or one of the brands will go away! Festive Phil – Anticipating the completion of the Alaska/ Hawaiian merger, management announces/ leaks that some Alaska Embraer 175s will be repurposed to replace or supplement the aging Hawaiian Boeing 717 inter-island fleet. They will bear the Hawaiian name and colors. Eric C – Nothing significant happens on the HA/AS merger front. It won’t be approved yet (though it will) so the eventual fallout will be left for 2025 and later. IP – Both JetBlue/Spirit & Alaska/Hawaiian fall through, causing JetBlue to try again, this time purchasing Hawaiian, which is doomed to fail Jason – AS will announce it will not utilize HA widebodies outside of Hawaii-focused routes (so no international expansion from SEA), and will signal plans to phase out the Airbus fleet, ultimately spelling the end of HI-mainland flying that cannot be executed with Boeing narrwobodies. Fox – The Alaska/Hawaiian merger is approved and the two unified airlines pick a new name to better promote themselves as “not a regional carrier”. Douglas K Swalen – The Biden Administration will try to block the Alaska/Hawaiian acquisition. But Trump will (unfortunately) win election and the case will be dropped in 2025. I really hope I’m wrong about this one. Randolf – Alaska will kill hawaiian at some point Zhuo Andrew – AS/HA merger goes through and HA joins OneWorld. AS announces plans to deploy HA widebodies in SEA/PDX but DL remains committed to SEA.

None of us should be surprised that the topic with the most predictions this year was the Alaska/Hawaiian merger. What is surprising is that almost none of you got it right! But Zhuo Andrew looks like an oracle with his prediction, only failing on the widebodies to Portland bit but that’s hardly a ding. Also, Nick Bax, I’ll give you credit since it did stay on track but actually was completed earlier. And Greg, I assume we’re talking about LAX, but it’s too early to know for sure on that. (But I think you’re right.) Everybody else expecting failure, the end of the Hawaiian brand, or even Embraers in the islands… not happening.

The JetBlue/Spirit Merger SEAN – As the ULCC’s continue to struggle through 2024, the DOJ will reluctantly give the Spirit/ JetBlue merger the OK. This will include gate & other concessions involving mostly MCO & FLL. JetBlue will also announce two additional routes to Europe & or Canada. Emily – I kinda agree, but I think it will be BOS and FLL. Eric – B6,/NK gets blessed with some, but not terribly restrictive divestments. A gate or two here and there but I think the DOJ is going to let the market rationalize the network. Being said…the integration of the two will be painfully slow. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Spirit brand stuck around past 2027. Bricen – jetBlue/Spirit merger falls through completely. Jim M – I predict that the JetBlue/Spirit merger will be called off in the face of regulatory uncertainty, and Alaska will swoop in to buy Spirit. Alaska, Hawaiian and Spirit will continue to operate under their own brands, with a common FFP. CoolBlue – JetBlue/Spirit Acquisition will go through, but they will have to divest some assets; however, nothing too crazy. Paul A – Jet Blue & Spirit’s merger finally gets approved, but the 2 airlines will loose alot of money in the process. LGB Jarvis – Sun country airlines will merge with frontier or allegiant airlines after the JetBlue/spirit airlines merger is approved.

If one merger wasn’t on your mind, the other one was. Remember the JetBlue/Spirit merger? Well, most of you got that one wrong too. You were right Bricen, but it didn’t really fall through. It was blocked. I’ll still give credit there. Jim M, well, half credit for the first part? There was a lot of optimism that DOJ wouldn’t scuttle this deal, but the courts felt differently.

The Fate of Breeze Kenneth – Despite someone’s failed prediction of Breeze (or Avelo) going belly up last year, I do believe we will see Breeze cease operations in 2024, bringing Neeleman’s “Midas’ touch” to an end. I’d love to be in the graveyard next year for this one, but their financials do not appear good based on the limited data available. John G – one of Avelo or Breeze will die. E – Breeze goes under and a U.S. legacy scoops up their A220s — most likely, Delta. SAN Greg – Breeze, unfortunately, will cease operations. Dolphin – Breeze goes through some strategic changes: announcing service to Western Europe and the Caribbean on the A220, initially from BDL, while announcing an early retirement for the Embraers and cutting many small Allegiant-style leisure markets in their network. Yo – Breeze and New(ish) Pacific go belly up, Avelo gets bought out by…??? Somehow, Eastern survives. Brian – Breeze Airways ends the year with a smaller route-map, deferred aircraft deliveries, and is relying on their charter operation to keep Breeze out of “Airlines We Lost 2024.” MCOFlyGuy – Breeze will cease operations or be purchased by another airline for their 220’s. Charles Nicholson – My prediction: (1) Breeze Airways will launch a Part 135 subsidiary or (2) a standalone Part 135 carrier will emerge. In either case, it will connect relatively large markets.

I must admit, I’m surprised at the number of predictions that involved Breeze. There must have been some news at this time last year that got you all thinking about the airline, but your doom-and-gloom beliefs did not pan out. Only Yo gets some credit here, and that’s not for Breeze. That’s for New Pacific going under, at least the scheduled part. And those of you who dragged Avelo into this? No way… they’re making money, at least in some quarters. I know I said I wouldn’t highlight failures, but there were so many Breeze predictions that I had to talk about this.

Canadian LCCs and 777 Partners ChuckMO – I predict that one of the Canadian ULCC’s will end scheduled operations next year. YEG – I bet two of them fail to survive the year. Flair and Jetlines. rollie325 – Either Flair or Bonza will stop operations permanently, for reasons possibly attributable to the wishes (or outrageously greedy aircraft leases) of 777 Partners. PoolNoodle – Bonza will collapse 1st half of this year. Will they take down Flair with them?

Should you get credit ChuckMO, if TWO of the Canadian ended scheduled operations? Heck yeah you should. YEG, you got one of them right, but Flair is still around. It’s Lynx that’s gone. Meanwhile down under, rollie325 and PoolNoodle were both right that Bonza died, but Flair is still in the game.

Air India Roars or Maybe Not Yet Hammer – Air India will announce a new US destination next year, likely LAX or IAH that will be flown with an a350. Angetenar – Air India announces LAX and BOS Harsha – Air India uses its new A350s to launch DFW/IAH/LAX/SEA (BOS uses a 788) and steals market share from IndiGO because of their continuing P&W issues. Dan P – Air India in 2024 will begin flights from DEL to LAX and BOS. AI will also announce DFW, IAH and YUL before year’s end (tho they could begin in 2025), as well as upgrading IAD to daily A350s.

As Tata continues to try to turn Air India into a functioning entity, some of you made predictions. Hammer, you are probably correct on LAX but until the schedules are filed, I believe nothing. Angetenar, you’re probably half right. And Harsha, we’re still waiting to see schedules filed beyond JFK and Newark in the US on the A350. Things do not move quickly at that airline.

Will JSX Survive? Angry Bob Crandall – JSX will double their cities in 2024 Marietta – JSX will enter the EAS and SCASD arena. Chris L – Bowing to pressure from the legacy carriers and ALPA regarding “abuse” of its Part 135 operating certificate, the US government will force JSX to downgrade service to less than daily on all routes or undergo conversion to a Part 121 operator. While JSX will hang on beyond 2024 with this new model, it will ultimately doom it. BusBlitz – JSX stays allowed to fly, and Parts 135/380 don’t get “fixed” or changed.

Lots of talk about JSX last year, but really, not much happened this year. BusBlitz, you were the winner on that. It did grow but not an enormous amount. Salt Lake was the big addition beyond mostly connecting dots. This is entirely in the “wait and see” camp. Nothing has been done on Part 135/380 yet, but something will eventually happen.

The Delta Fleet Tim Dunn – Delta will be the first US (and western) airline to have a mainline fleet of 1000 aircraft and will overtake Emirates as the largest operator of Airbus widebodies. A220HubandSpoke – Delta will place a sizable order for at least 100 A321Neos and at least 50 A350s/A330-900Neos. VictorKilo – By the end of 2024 Delta will have plans to increase the number of A223 aircraft in their fleet, through assuming orders and/or built aircraft from Breeze. Austin787 – Delta announces order for additional A350 aircraft.

It wouldn’t be possible to have one of these without a year-end prediction for Delta. And in fact, we have two. Austin787, come on down. You’re a winner since back in January Delta ordered 20 more A350s. That was the only order this year from the airline that I can find. And no, Delta does not yet have 1,000 mainline aircraft. It did barely pass Emirates as the largest operator of Airbus widebodies even though I don’t know why that matters. But based on current orders, Emirates will win that one in the end.

Delta in Austin Tory – I’ll predict DL’s continued expansion at their AUS ‘focus city’ on a long-term path towards a future hub to the extent they can get gate space. They may even come to some agreement with the airport for future gates, maybe even their own terminal if they want to be bold (unlikely). stogieguy7 – DL will add even more flights/destination from AUS than those announced in December; Ian L – Due to lackluster range on the A321XLR, AUS does *not* get any new TATL/TPAC service announced in 2024, and WN hits 40% passenger share multiple months out of the year as DL’s expansion in AUS doesn’t compensate for AA’s retrenchment.

We three winners here! Delta did indeed grow in Austin, Tory and stogieguy7, as American pulls back, but the chance of this turning into a hub is slim to none unless a whole lot more terminal space comes available. For now it will continue to serve a role as a focus city, and a growing one at that. And Ian L, yes, Austin failed to get any new long-haul flying this year as Southwest continues to improve its position.

The Air Traffic Control Debacle AirlineFlyer – 2023 was awful for ATC in the Northeast, but I predict summer 2024 will be so bad that it’ll made 2023 look like pre-COVID times. FAA will require, not ask, that airlines reduce their schedules into JFK, LGA, and EWR, but all they’ll do is cut insignificant slot squatting routes at 7am that shouldn’t exist to begin with. MeanMeosh – A major winter storm in late January or February causes an extreme operational meltdown, followed by the ATC meltdown in the summer predicted by AirlineFlyer, finally forcing the DOT and/or Congress to adopt an EU 261-type delay compensation scheme.

I’m surprised more people didn’t talk about this. AirlineFlyer, well, yeah, they did ask airlines to reduce flying but the extra push this year was thanks to the complete and total inability to deal with the transition of Newark’s airspace down to the Philly center. There were not massive meltdowns, at least not because of ATC. But if you live in or fly to the New York area, you’re still getting hit hard with no real relief in sight.

Boeing, the MAX 10, and More O’Hare Is My Second Home – After the 737 MAX 10 gets certified, United’s first flight of it will be DEN – EWR. Greengsg9 – The B737 MAX will get MAX10 certified by the FAA, but certification will be denied by EASA/CAAC without a cockpit alert system 727200 – 777X certified (finally) but Boeing bungles something else massively. Evan – Boeing finally gets a management change.

A whole lot happened at Boeing this year, but most of the predictions did not come true. The MAX 10 wasn’t certified, and neither was the 777X. But good on you Evan, because you got the management change right. Kelly Ortberg has been enjoying his trial by fire as new CEO, no doubt.

Labor Trouble Brian Gasser – Under unions, (UA, AA, and WN) FAs do not none walk out and strike. At least 2 of the 3 reach a contract settlement. CallScheduling – Flight attendants’ turn. Of the big 4 that are unionized (WN, AA, UA), all will have ratified FA contracts this year while DL will take those contracts into consideration with their FA group to keep unions off property.

Brian Gasser, that’s a win. American and Southwest have settled with their flight attendants on a new contract. Only United remains. As for Delta, well, it keeps trying to fight off a union, but this one has yet to play out in this round.

ULCCs Under Pressure SEASFO – The environment of high labor and declining US domestic demand will persist in 2024, resulting in at least one US ULCC declaring bankruptcy or being acquired.

Good call, SEASFO! As we know, Spirit has filed for bankruptcy protection.

BA and Tech Do Not Mix BRMM – BA will have an IT meltdown that substantially delays operations.

This kind of seems unfair, BRMM, because it was always a given. Sure enough, BA had an IT meltdown. But hey, the one in November was proclaimed to have been shorter because of all the tech work that BA has done. Congrats?

Philippine Heads to Seattle MK03 – Will PAL finally launch their new US destination that they’ve long been rumored to be launching in 2024? Will they finally launch Seattle after all this time? My guess is… yes?

Yes, MK03, yes they will. This service launched in October, so that is a bullseye.

United in Asia Cody C – United makes an even bigger push into east asia. They restore even more China/HKG service, add a little extra NRT since they can’t get more HND, net a new gateway to ICN via the oz/ke merger, and even add BKK as a new destination after the MNL experiment proves successful.

Cody C – Yeah, that did happen to some extent. If you had stopped after the first sentence, it would have been a true win with all the new service that has been added through the renewed Narita hub plus a little more China. But no Bangkok is there, and Incheon will be hurt by the Korean merger but just not yet.

Starlux Grows Johosofat – Starlux will finally plug one of the most glaring holes in its network by starting flights to Hong Kong.

It most certainly did, Johosofat. It started in July.

The Schiphol Flight Cap Returns Simon Blackburn – the Schiphol flight cap and passenger levies more generally will be back on the agenda – not sure we’ll see them introduced en masse in 2024 but can see there being progress towards them despite opposition from IATA etc.

I wish I could just dump this in the graveyard, Simon Blackburn, but I cannot. Schiphol is back with a proposed flight cap for 2025 set at 478,000.

IndiGo Gets Wide VBurj76 – Indigo orders Widebodies

It sure does, VBurj76. It ordered 30 A350s, in fact.

Frequent Flier Programs Get Tougher southbay flier – Seeing that Delta’s profitability isn’t affected by their new harsher requirements for elite status, AA, United make similar moves.

This isn’t an area I pay close attention to, but sure enough it does appear that United has jacked up its thresholds to qualify.

Is Riyadh Air on Track? KinkyKuwaiti – Riyadh Air will continue to receive aircraft but fail to actually get an AOC and begin passenger flights. Tony Douglas is then forced out and finds his way to Emirates upon Tim Clark’s 2nd retirement announcement

I guess this is true in that it has not gotten its AOC yet, but it’s still in progress and there has been no real public drama. So, partial credit, KinkyKuwaiti.

A Last Minute PIT Victory Ron – One of the big four starts nonstop flights between LAX and Pittsburgh (again). Most likely Southwest, or else United.

You just snuck in for the victory on this one, Ron! American only announced it a week or two ago, but sure enough, it will be back on the LA – Pittsburgh route next year.

The Most Obvious Predictions Come True JPH – No progress will be made extending PATH train service to EWR. Greg M. – The people mover at LAX will not begin operations on schedule in 2024.

I know your prediction is true, Greg M, since further delays have pushed the people mover out to early 2026. And the PATH train extension? I don’t follow this as closely, JPH, but I don’t see anything suggesting there’s been any progress. I’m sure these are shocking to everyone.

The Graveyard of Failed Predictions Luca – QF will screw up once again, probably another ‘selling tickets for cancelled flights’ or labor problem, which leads to a public boycott of the airline. ZL will capitalise on this by rebranding to Ansett, the only large australian airline where we have mostly good memories about. (Sorry if this counts as two) Kevin – Delta shutters SEA as a hub, and pares it down to ~75 flights/daily. GS in PDX – Airbus will launch the A220-500 to compete directly with the 737MAX8 ejwpj – The remains of MH370 will be found! Ayesha Nicole – Considering all that happened this year, there will be a fatal accident involving a US airliner in 2024. DaBluBoi – PIA will survive and both it and SriLankan will be privatised with significant stakes being held by GCC carriers Seanny – As the trend in corp design is to bring back the great iconic logos of the 60s, 70s, and 80s.. United will finally bring back the Tulip. Outer Space Guy – One airline will try nonstop scheduled service between the Phoenix area and Liberia Costa Rica (MRLB), even if it is not daily service. JetXMedia – Alaska will drop SFO – JFK and SFO – BOS transcons Alan Bowen – Norse Atlantic will cease all operations within the first 6 months of 2024 HP-OGish – JetSmart Argentina fleet doubles in size in 2024 CraigTPA – Porter will add US destinations from Vancouver – initially SFO and LAX, possibly SAN by year’s end. Rohan Anand – WN will announce DFW ops with plans to also include international service (starting with CUN). Bonnie Darkey – I predict that by August American will declare bankruptcy again. Their shortsighted push away from corporate fares and focusing on leisure fares will come to haunt them and they will need to reorder. Expect some strange suiters coming out of the woods for their reorganization nobody – My crazy prediction for next year is that we see at least one direct flight between West Africa (Lagos, Accra, etc.) and South America. Though, this will be less crazy if/when Nigeria joins BRICS. David C – United will announce major shifts in aircraft deployment plans for the regional carriers as E145s and CRJ200’s get official retirement dates. Carl – Mexicana will cease operations soon after the new President takes over in Mexico. One Trippe – LH Group snatches up TAP, IAG takes both UX and LO, AFKL complicates political dynamics with the newly all but acquired SK IPod – ANA will restart SJC-TYO, likely as HND, while Zipair will expand their US footprint to SEA. Both will operate with 787s Jim Kingdon – After years of talk, 2024 will be the year that train travel makes a material dent in short haul European flying, due to cheaper train tickets and new capacity. Most airlines will do fine, however, as long-haul will be only bolstered by this trend. Jamie – Silver Airways would cease operations. This would give Current Aviation LLC an opportunity to pick up their AOC and ATR fleet to begin flying to unserved secondary and tertiary US O&D markets that are under 450 miles…bypassing legacy network hubs all while offering far lower trip costs than the likes of Breeze, Avelo, Allegiant and Frontier. Pilotaaron1 – There will finally be meaningful discussion and reform to the 1500hr rule. Brian G. – I predict a major US regional airline or a trade group will lobby the FAA/Congress to allow for a training pathway allowing first officers with less than 1,500 hours into the cockpit. Jonas – New CO²/aviation fuel taxes will make airlines run away from/fight Germany and its government about “unfair competition” and other “wah-wah” by airlines (looking at you Ryanair).

And now, back to you. What will happen in 2025? Let’s hear it in the comments.

Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks

Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks

Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks

Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks

Reviewing Your 2024 Predictions and Making Your 2025 Picks