Only Russia is Holding India Back

When I looked at the Chinese market, one of the comments asked me to do a similar look at India. I’m happy to oblige. And really, this was a fascinating dive. I hadn’t thought about India nearly as much as I had China. The changes aren’t quite as dramatic, but they are clear. Indian demand just keeps growing. The problem is its pesky neighbor to the north is making it hard for the country to reach its full potential, at least on long-haul.

The US Market Has One Problem

Let’s start off with a look at US-India specifically. Thanks to the distance involved, there’s nonstop, and there’s flying through a third country. I broke that out in the following chart, because I think it’s important to differentiate.

Seats by Month From US to India

Data via Cirium

What we see here is that up until 2007, there wasn’t much nonstop service, but what existed was operated by the US carriers. Air India ran everything through Europe until then when it finally began flying nonstop. That was the same time that Jet Airways started flying to the US with a stop, so the race was on.

The initial surge of capacity that came in 2007/2008 was quickly dismantled. It was too premature. And capacity continued to decline for nearly a decade.

Delta abandoned nonstop flights in 2009, only operating via Amsterdam until it tried the nonstop again right before the pandemic shut it down. It still hasn’t returned. American, meanwhile, shut its flight down in 2012, leaving United as the only US carrier flying nonstop to India.

In 2016, Jet Airways left the US, only to shut down two years later. That was when the market hit bottom. After that, things had started to improve steadily, but then the pandemic hit.

What’s pretty remarkable here is how quickly India flying came back after the pandemic, and then how quickly it surged ahead. This was no bubble. India was a popular market for visiting friends and relatives, and people were willing to travel. United in particular was looking for any long-haul opportunity with demand, and it expanded fast with flights to Delhi from Chicago/O’Hare, Newark, and San Francisco along with Newark to Mumbai. It wasn’t all United; American started JFK – Delhi in 2021.

But then, the Russians invaded Ukraine, and the whole thing fell apart.

Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.

When the Russians shut their airspace off to US and European airlines, it had a devastating impact on the profitability and in some cases the possibility of flights to India. United was hit hardest, and it abandoned all of its flights — including the announced-but-not-flown San Francisco – Bangalore flight — with the exception of Newark – Delhi.

It may seem odd that Newark – Delhi could fly while Newark – Mumbai could not based on the map above, but do keep in mind that Mumbai is further by about 500 miles as the crow flies, so that makes a difference. Also, the winds demand that flights don’t always take the great circle path anyway. As I understand it, that flight just doesn’t work without access to Russian airspace.

What’s one airline’s problem, however, is another’s opportunity. Air India had no such prohibition on flying over Russia, so it stepped up demand when the US airlines could not.

The airline had suspended it’s 1-2x weekly flight from SFO to Bangalore when the invasion happened, but by December it had returned with 3x weekly. It began 4x weekly from SFO to Mumbai at the same time. JFK – Mumbai came online in early 2023, and Newark – Delhi — which had been at 4x weekly before the invasion — recently went up to 5x weekly.

Air India is dominating the market, and it has more than doubled seats in the last decade. It will continue to have that nonstop market almost entirely to itself until Russian airspace opens up to US-based carriers.

The Rest of the World

This is a US-focused site more than anything else, so it stands to reason that I’d start with US flying. But that is a true drop in the bucket compared to other parts of the world. Take a look.

Seats from India by Month and Destination Continent

Data via Cirium

While North America sits down at the bottom of the pile, it’s the Middle East which has absolutely exploded. In 2005, the Middle East – India was about 25 percent larger than the European market. Now, it’s more than 250 percent larger.

Why? There are a lot of reasons. First, there is huge local traffic between India and the Middle East thanks to the countless workers who go from India to places like Dubai to earn a paycheck they can send home to family. But it’s also the mega-hubs in Dubai and Doha that provide enormous amounts of connecting traffic. This is the most important market for India and, I would argue, for the Middle East airlines as well.

It’s also noticeable that Southeast Asia has surged ahead. This is really the triumvirate of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore. Europe, meanwhile, has stagnated in comparison, but it is still at a high point despite Russian overflight restrictions.

The only market that’s really suffering mightily? It’s China. In fact, if you thought flying from the US to China was tough, you haven’t looked at India. There are currently… checks notes… ZERO flights scheduled between the two most populous countries on earth. That is staggering.

This is a diplomatic spat above all, but it sounds like things are starting to thaw and we may see the resumption of nonstops again soon enough. But for now, it’s still a flat line.

The Domestic Market Soars

The last market I want to take a look at is the domestic one. If you want to see a growth story, this is it.

Domestic India Seats by Airline By Month

Data via Cirium

Up until 2011, it was Indian Airlines and Jet Airways that were the biggest competitors in the market. That year, Air India and Indian Airlines merged in what can only be considered a terrible mess of a merger. But once Air India took over, the combined airline just watched as other airlines ate its lunch.

The biggest and most impressive competitor of all is IndiGo which right around 2011 surged to be the largest domestic airline. Today, it’s not even close.

IndiGo’s position was helped when Kingfisher disappeared in 2012, Jet Airways failed in 2019, and Go First imploded in 2023. SpiceJet did try to step in and grow quickly at that point, but it has almost died time and time again. It is no longer an important player.

Air India has regained some strength now that it’s owned by Tata. That company has worked to combine all of the ridiculous subsidiaries into something more coherent. Vistara was folded into Air India. AirAsia India was folded into Air India Express. They’re all now under a single corporate banner under Air India, competing primarily with IndiGo, the remains of SpiceJet and upstart Akasa Air.

During this time, monthly seats have grown from a little over 2 million to more than 17 million. The market should only keep growing.

India continues to grow in importance on the world stage, and it has barely scratched the surface of its potential to support more air travel. If geopolitical issues cleared up, that would just accelerate the process. Either way, India will be one of the more important travel markets to watch.

Only Russia is Holding India Back

Only Russia is Holding India Back

Only Russia is Holding India Back

Only Russia is Holding India Back

Only Russia is Holding India Back