Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth

Delta’s big summer plans over the Atlantic may be old news by now, but it wasn’t until this week that I had time to really look into what the airline has decided to do. And you know what? It’s not quite what I expected to find.

The airline has really gone big into Southern Europe leisure destinations, and there just isn’t much beyond that. As of now, only one new European destination has been announced next summer (Catania). That is also the only growth from JFK. Most of the growth is coming out of Atlanta.

Delta’s overall Atlantic plan includes the following year-over-year filed changes in next July’s schedule:

Atlanta – Amsterdam increased from 18x weekly to 3x daily Atlanta – Athens increased from 1x daily to 11x weekly Atlanta – Barcelona increased from 1x daily to 10x weekly Atlanta – Brussels new 3x weekly (shifted from JFK which drops from 1x daily to 4x weekly) Atlanta – Naples new 4x weekly Atlanta – Rome increased from 2x daily to 17x weekly Atlanta – Stuttgart is canceled Atlanta – Zurich increased from 4x weekly to 1x daily Boston – Barcelona new 3x weekly Boston – Milan/Malpensa new 4x weekly Detroit – Dublin new 4x weekly Detroit – Munich increased from 4x weekly to 1x daily (shifted from JFK which is canceled) Minneapolis/St Paul – Rome new 4x weekly New York/JFK – Catania new 1x daily Portland (OR) – Amsterdam is canceled (now operated by KLM instead)

What is the overall theme here? There is some shifting of capacity in Germany and Brussels, for example. But as I said up top, the real growth is happening in Greece, Italy, and Spain.

That Southern Europe flying has grown like you can’t believe. Let me take a little look back here thanks to Cirium data:

Delta/Northwest Departing Seats from Europe

Data via Cirium

Just look at that increase we’ve seen in Southern Europe since before the pandemic. In 2019, Southern Europe accounted for 21 percent of Delta’s seats over the Atlantic. But next summer? It’ll be 32 percent.

Perhaps it’s not a surprise to see such growth in the region. We’ve seen a bottomless pit of demand over the Atlantic during the summer into primary tourist markets, and those just happen to concentrate themselves around the Mediterranean. So it might be more interesting to look at what’s happening elsewhere to see how Delta thinks about the region.

Amsterdam, Paris, and London aren’t fair comparisons without looking at what the joint venture partners are doing. After all, since they split revenue, it doesn’t really matter who is flying the airplane. It can still be considered Delta’s capacity to sell.

So, let’s see how those come out when we include everything.

Delta/Northwest/Air France/KLM/Virgin Atlantic Departing Seats from Europe

Data via Cirium

Amsterdam is still down, but not nearly as bad as Delta is down alone. KLM is simply getting more capacity from Delta, like the Portland flight which switches. But again, it’s down overall. This is the result of continued issues with the Dutch government trying to restrict capacity. There really isn’t much more that can be done there.

Meanwhile in Paris, there still is large growth on all sides. But again, there’s only so much that Delta and friends can do in that airport. Air France continues to find new opportunities like Phoenix, etc, but it’s unclear how many more of those it has up its sleeve.

And London is, well, it’s London. Once Virgin Atlantic joined forces with Delta, capacity was reallocated to serve more in the Transatlantic market. But that airport is full, so the only real potential here is to get more seats on each airplane, something that might not really be helpful anyway. More flights to more places would be more interesting, but it’s not on the table.

I broke out Scandinavia as well in the original chart, and that’s because SAS will eventually be joining the joint venture. The only point here is to show just how small that market is for Delta today. I imagine there will be more opportunity in the future.

Other than that, the only real growth outside of Southern Europe is in the British Isles. We’re talking about those big leisure destinations like Dublin or Scotland. These markets are attractive because they are short and can be served with smaller airplanes if desired. The demand is big in summer, so it’s worth adding more capacity.

The other markets, highlighted by Germany completing falling out of favor, are just not going to get any love from Delta. The airline continues to pull back in Germany in particular.

So, next summer is all about those big markets on the Med. Beyond that and the hubs, there just isn’t much more that Delta cares about for now. I have no doubt those trends will shift eventually, but that’s an issue for another day. For next summer, Delta’s mission is clear.

Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth

Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth

Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth

Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth

Delta Looks to Southern Europe for Growth