Experts' picks: Who will win the 2024 US Open men's title?

Sep 07, 2024 23:45

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On Sunday, Taylor Fritz will face off against Jannik Sinner in the US Open men's final (2 p.m. ET ABC; ESPN+). Sinner is ranked No. 1 in the world and won the Australian Open title earlier this year, while Fritz is playing in his first Grand Slam final. Can Fritz somehow pull off the upset? Our experts weigh in.

What can Fritz do to defeat Sinner?

Brad Gilbert: Fritz has to serve really well and take some chances on his second serve, combining the serve with his forehand to control the rallies. From the neutral rallies, he needs be bold with the forehand.

D'Arcy Maine: It's simple: Play the best match of his life.

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I'm only sort of joking. But what struck me most about Fritz's five-set win over Frances Tiafoe on Friday night was his ability to stay in it, no matter what. Even when momentum and the crowd were on Tiafoe's side, Fritz just kept fighting and doing whatever he could to give himself a chance. He took control in the fourth set and showed the same mental strength we've seen all tournament against several high-quality opponents including Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev.

But Sinner is the world No. 1 for a reason and arguably the best hard-court player on tour at the moment. There will be little room for error for Fritz, and he cannot allow himself to have momentary lags like he did against Tiafoe. Everything -- his big serve, his movement, his powerful hitting -- will need to be as close to flawless as possible.

play0:51Taylor Fritz defeats Frances Tiafoe to advance to men's US Open final

Taylor Fritz defeats Frances Tiafoe in five sets to face Jannik Sinner in the men's US Open final.

Bill Connelly: Return like he has never returned before. Fritz has won three of five all-time sets with Sinner, but they haven't played since Indian Wells 2023, before Sinner's 2024 breakthrough. And with each passing year, Sinner's serve has grown more and more effective. He entered the US Open having held serve 91.7% of the time in 2024, tied with Matteo Berrettini for the best average in the ATP top 50.

Fritz started slowly in New York, but over his past four matches he has held serve 91.8% of the time. He has found his rhythm, and he'll have to make the absolute most of the break opportunities he gets. That, or try to win tiebreakers against a guy who almost never loses tiebreakers.

Ohm Youngmisuk: Fritz has to serve the biggest he has all tournament. After playing an emotional five-setter against Tiafoe, Fritz will have to somehow be the fitter and stronger player at the end, as he was against Tiafoe. He has to chase down as many balls as possible and stay away from the Sinner forehand!

He can't let Sinner get in a comfort zone. Sinner can take opponents out of their game, even making the methodical Daniil Medvedev look out of sync. Fritz can't lose his focus. But more than anything else, Fritz has to give the biggest crowd he has ever had behind him reasons to get into the match. He has to make this match feel like it's two-on-one and get the crowd going.

What can Sinner do to defeat Fritz?

Gilbert: He needs his first-serve accuracy to set up his first shot to dominate the rallies. He also needs to continue dominating the middle of court -- what he has been doing all tournament long, and to make big progress on his second-serve return.

Maine: Sinner arrived in New York facing serious scrutiny after it was revealed he had tested positive for a banned substance twice in March -- and yet, despite any discomfort in being repeatedly asked about it, Sinner has been the best player in the draw. His powerful forehand is virtually unmatched. So while the crowd will certainly be heavily behind Fritz, it's hard to see that fazing Sinner all that much. Heck, he didn't even seem that thrown off as Jack Draper vomited multiple times (!) on court in their semifinal match.

Sinner won his previous meeting with Fritz -- at Indian Wells in 2023 -- and he's a significantly better and more in-form player now. This time they'll be meeting on a faster court, and Sinner has since won a major title at the Australian Open. He will need to play the same game that propelled him to the title in Cincinnati last month and into the final in New York, and tap into his experience from the final in Melbourne, in order to earn his first US Open title.

play0:37Jannik Sinner advances to US Open men's final

Jannik Sinner defeats Jack Draper as both men had to labor through a terrific three-set match at the US Open.

Connelly: Grind, as always. Fritz has done such a good job of addressing his weakest links and crafting an almost weakness-free game. He's good on short points, he's got a great serve, and he has improved his return game dramatically. But he's still not amazing in long points, and while Sinner can certainly pummel the ball with the best of them, leaning on sufferball as a Plan B is also typically a winner for him. And his superior Plan B is what has put him on the verge of his second Slam title of 2024.

Youngmisuk: Sinner is perhaps the best ball striker in the game, and so solid all around. If his left wrist is OK after he took a spill in the semis, Sinner will be incredibly tough to beat. He has shown that he's not unstoppable, as Medvedev took a set off him at 6-1 in their quarterfinal match. Perhaps more than anything, Sinner will have to overcome two opponents -- Fritz and an Arthur Ashe crowd that will try to will Fritz to become the first American man since Andy Roddick in 2003 to win.

Jannik Sinner won the Australian Open title earlier this year. Allen Kee / ESPN ImagesWho will win?

Maine: Sinner. While Fritz snapping the American men's 21-year major title drought at home would be legendary, it's hard to think the pressure of that won't catch up with him. And against Sinner, he simply can't afford to have weaknesses or moments of vulnerability. The Italian wins it in four sets.

Connelly: Sinner in four sets. He's just so good right now. He hits with nearly perfect power and depth, he can grind and suffer, and he's composed enough to handle what should be a partisan crowd. The wrist is a concern, and Fritz has been in brilliant form for most of the past two weeks, but it's almost impossible to pick against the world No. 1.

Youngmisuk: If Sinner can block the crowd out and play his game, he should be able to join Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Mats Wilander as the only men to win both the Australian Open and US Open in the same year since the Aussie switched to hard courts. And this US Open win would give him one more Slam this year than Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic, and cement him as the best in the world this year.

Taylor Fritz is playing in his first Grand Slam final. Allen Kee / ESPN ImagesThe betting perspective

Pamela Maldonado: Taylor Fritz +5 games vs. Jannik Sinner

Fritz has been showcasing excellent tennis, defeating top players like Ruud and Zverev en route to the final, including a physically demanding five-set victory over fellow American Tiafoe in the semifinal.

Fritz's game is built around his powerful serve and the "serve-plus-one" combination with his flat forehand. His improved footwork has been a standout feature, allowing him to quickly get into position after serving to hit strong follow-up shots.

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Experts' picks: Who will win the 2024 US Open men's title?