Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?

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NEW YORK -- On Friday, under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will play in one of the biggest matches of each of their respective careers as they meet in a US Open semifinal.

Both Fritz, the No. 12 seed, and Tiafoe, the No. 20 seed, will be looking to reach their first major final.

And the match isn't just a big deal for them as individuals. Their meeting marks the first semifinals at the tournament featuring two American men since 2005, and it guarantees an American man in a Slam final for the first time since 2009 and the first time at the US Open since 2006.

With so much on the line and with both hoping to make their own history in front of the supportive home crowd of 24,000 fans, Friday should be as electric and memorable of a match as they come. The two are longtime friends and have been playing against each other -- and been called two of the country's brightest young stars -- since their early teenage years.

They know each other's game very well.

"Taylor and I had a conversation about being [the] 1-2 Americans for a very long time," Tiafoe said after his quarterfinal match. "I remember we were sitting on a plane some years ago, and, you know, he's a pretty to-himself kind of dude, and he's like, 'Bro, I think me and you are going to be 1-2 Americans and leading the way ...'

"I think we have kind of always pushed each other. Now I think it's great that we get to compete against each other in such a big match, and I'm happy for him. I know he's happy for me. Let the best man win come Friday. It's going to be epic. Popcorn, do what you got to do. It's going to be a fun one come Friday."

While the semifinal showdown could go either way, and certainly make sure to get your popcorn ready, here's why both players have a chance to get the win -- and a prediction of how it might go.

play0:48Taylor Fritz reaches his first Grand Slam semifinal

American Taylor Fritz takes down Alexander Zverev to reach the US Open semifinals.

The case for Fritz

History is certainly on Fritz's side. The two have played seven times on tour, and Fritz has won their previous six meetings, most recently in the quarterfinals at Acapulco last season. And not only did Fritz, 26, win those matches, but he won four of them in straight sets, including during their lone major clash at the 2022 Australian Open.

Tiafoe's only win came more than eight years ago during the first round at Indian Wells in 2016. So it's been a while, and Fritz clearly has an edge in the matchup.

Fritz has also showed incredible mental fortitude during his run in New York, and he had arguably the toughest road of any remaining player to the final four. His second-round opponent was Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 Wimbledon finalist, but he won in straight sets. In the fourth round, he fought back after dropping the first set to three-time major finalist Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

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Playing in the fourth Slam quarterfinal of his career, and having never previously advanced to a semifinal, he held off Alexander Zverev, a two-time Slam finalist, in a fourth-set tiebreak to achieve the breakthrough victory. He's managed to fend off his nerves and consistently play his best tennis, even as the attention and pressure continue to grow.

"You know, it's cool I'm in the semis, but I very much have the mindset of, you know, the job's not done," Fritz said Tuesday before he knew who his next opponent would be. "I keep taking it one match at a time like I've been all tournament and focus on the next match ahead of me."

Fritz's serve has been perhaps his most valuable weapon throughout this fortnight and has an 83% first serve win percentage -- tied for the best among the men in the tournament -- and he's faced just 17 break points in his five matches. Not to mention, he's been able to use his big serve during key moments and will undoubtedly try to do the same against Tiafoe.

play0:46Tiafoe reaches US Open semis after Dimitrov retires with an injury

Frances Tiafoe moves on to the US Open semifinals against fellow American Taylor Fritz after Gregor Dimitrov retires with an injury.

The case for Tiafoe

Tiafoe, 26, has played every match but one on Ashe during the 2024 US Open, and after defeating Ben Shelton in a five-set thriller, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3, in the third round, he yelled, "This is my f---ing house!"

And, well, he's kind of right. Perhaps no one has enamored the crowd and benefited from its support at the stadium as much in recent years as Tiafoe -- even in matches where he was the obvious underdog. In 2022, he defeated Rafael Nadal in four sets on the court in the round of 16 and cemented his status as a fan favorite and high-energy showman.

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While Tiafoe struggled at times during the year, he has found his rhythm and results during the hard-court summer season. After skipping the Olympics in order to focus on the surface and his favorite major, Tiafoe has gone 14-4 and reached the final at the last tuneup event in Cincinnati, and had a semifinal appearance at his hometown Citi Open earlier in August. While he hasn't faced the same caliber of opponent Fritz has in New York, he has recorded wins over top-20 players Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune in the past month.

Tiafoe is a dynamic mover and shotmaker -- and he believes his past meetings with Fritz will have little bearing on the outcome of Friday's match when the stakes are the highest they've ever been.

"It's different on Ashe, man. It's different," Tiafoe said. "Obviously you have to learn from those [past matches]. You know, I mean, a couple of those I thought I actually should have won ...

"It's going to be a big one for both of us, playing for a final. I don't think those matches are anywhere near what this match would be, so it's kind of tough to even go from there. Playing quarters of Acapulco 500 and playing semis at Arthur Ashe at night -- well, hopefully at night -- it's a little different."

Can Tiafoe make it to his first Grand Slam final? AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz AlvarezOK, so who actually will win?

It's safe to assume nerves will certain be a factor for both players. It's a colossal opportunity for both, and they won't be able to forget the moment or what's on the line. In many ways, it could simply come down to who can keep those emotions best in check, especially early. As both are Americans, every point -- regardless of who wins it -- will likely draw cheers and, while it will certainly be loud throughout, might be less of a factor than it's been during other matches.

By all indications, Fritz should win this. Their head-to-head record supports it and his résumé at this tournament is far stronger. But it's hard to think anyone wants this more than Tiafoe, and he's been laser-focused on his main goal of glory at the US Open for most of the year. He's peaking at exactly the right time.

"It's almost like a joke that Frances wakes up in August," he told reporters Tuesday.

While Tiafoe's opponents haven't been nearly as experienced or tough as those Fritz has faced, he's had some battles -- most notably against Shelton in the third round -- and has continued to find a way to win. Playing in his second major semifinal, he knows what to expect and the emotions that come with it. It might not be practical, but this feels like Tiafoe's match to lose.

Tiafoe in five sets. As he said earlier in the tournament, "Why not?"

Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?

Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?

Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?

Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?

Who will win the epic Taylor Fritz-Frances Tiafoe semifinal?