African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective

The first in what will be an annual series of Afrobarometer flagship reports focuses on the democratic aspirations and experiences of African citizens

Executive summary

Africa's democratic project faces challenging times, overshadowing ruling-party transitions, the ouster of long-sitting presidents, and other democratic advances, and fuelling warnings that democracy is losing ground on the continent.

Afrobarometer has documented the democratic aspirations and experiences of African citizens for the past 25 years. This report, the first in what will be an annual series on high-priority topics, distills findings from data spanning more than a decade, including our latest round of nationally representative surveys in 39 countries. In a nutshell: Africans want more democratic governance than they are getting, and the evidence suggests that nurturing support for democracy will require strengthening integrity in local government and official accountability.

Key findings

Support for democracy

On average across 39 countries, support for democracy remains robust: Two-thirds (66%) of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%).But across 30 countries surveyed consistently over the past decade, support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points, including by 29 points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali.Opposition to military rule has weakened by 11 points across 30 countries, most dramatically in Mali and Burkina Faso (by 40 and 36 points, respectively).More than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders "abuse power for their own ends."Growing majorities call for government accountability and the rule of law, and support for other democratic norms has held steady over the past decade, including presidential accountability to Parliament, multiparty competition, presidential term limits, and media freedom.But support for elections has dropped by 8 percentage points across 30 countries, though a large majority still consider it the best method for choosing their leaders.

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Supply of democracy

Fewer than half (45%) of Africans think their countries are mostly or completely democratic, and only 37% say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries.Across 30 countries, both indicators show declines – of 8 and 11 percentage points, respectively – over the past decade.Satisfaction with democracy has dropped precipitously in some of Africa's most high-profile democracies, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), and South Africa (-35 points).Other indicators of democratic supply also show at least modest declines, including citizen assessments of the quality of elections and their president's accountability to Parliament and the courts.

Drivers of democratic attitudes

Deepening citizen dissatisfaction with how democracy is performing is strongly associated with perceived declines in both socioeconomic and political performance.But support for democracy as a system of government is more resilient to economic and social deficiencies. Where we see declines in support for democracy, they are most closely linked to adverse changes in political performance, such as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law.Given the importance of citizen support to the survival of a democratic project, our findings underscore the centrality of restoring faith in African governments' ability to deliver accountable, democratic governance.

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African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective

African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective

African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective

African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective

African Insights 2024 - Democracy at Risk - The People's Perspective